| Utility | Ticker | Reactors | GWe | M lbs/yr | Covered 2026 | Covered 2027 | Covered 2028 | Covered 2029 | Covered 2030 | Contract Disclosure | Known Suppliers |
|---|
| Year | Total Demand (M lbs) |
Open Market (M lbs) |
Covered (M lbs) |
Uncovered (M lbs) |
% Uncov | Urgency | US Contracted (M lbs) |
US Uncov (M lbs) |
|---|
Contracting Lag: Utilities sign long-term contracts 2–5 years before delivery. When uncovered positions exceed ~40%, utilities enter the market simultaneously → term price surges ahead of spot.
Current Setup (May 2026): Global uncovered at 28% for 2026, rising to 41% for 2027 and 55% for 2028. EIA UMAR 2024 shows US utilities committed only 29M lbs for 2027 delivery against 39.5M lbs expected demand — the largest forward gap since the 2007 bull market. Utilities needing 2027–2029 delivery must contract now.
Watch: EIA UMAR 2025 (due June 2026) — if 2027–2028 committed volumes don’t increase significantly from the 29M and 21M lbs in UMAR 2024, expect accelerated panic-buying in 2026–2027. Cameco quarterly contract announcements are the best real-time leading indicator.
| Year | Purchased (M lbs) | Avg Price ($/lb) | Spot % | Term % | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 48.1 | $31.70 | 12% | 88% | Pre-COVID baseline; heavy term reliance |
| 2020 | 41.0 | $33.95 | 11% | 89% | COVID demand dip; Cigar Lake shutdown briefly spiked spot |
| 2021 | 37.6 | $36.50 | 8% | 92% | Lowest volume since 2016; utilities running on legacy contracts |
| 2022 | 51.4 | $43.28 | 19% | 81% | Re-contracting cycle begins; Ukraine war supply shock |
| 2023 | 44.0 | $53.06 | 15% | 85% | KAP/Cameco shortfalls; spot surged to $91 by December |
| 2024 | 55.9 | $66.07 | 11% | 89% | Record new contract price $86.20/lb; 126M lb inventory; Russian ban signed May 2024 [EIA UMAR 2024] |
| Data Point | Public? | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Contract coverage % by year | Partial | 10-K (Duke best) | Duke explicitly states 100% through 2029; others use vague language |
| Annual U3O8 requirement (lbs) | Derivable | EIA-923 + NRC | MWh × 0.050 lbs/MWh (US fleet avg from EIA UMAR) |
| Specific supplier names | Rarely | 10-K risk factors | Usually “diversified portfolio”; Cameco named in some filings |
| Volume purchased from each supplier | No | EIA UMAR (suppressed) | EIA collects but does not publish individual utility data |
| Contract prices | No | — | Commercially sensitive; EIA publishes only industry averages |
| Inventory on hand (lbs) | Partial | 10-K purchase commitments table | Duke discloses by state (UraniumSC: 2,688; UraniumNC: 2,386 thou lbs) |
| Cameco as a named supplier | Yes | Cameco MD&A, some utility 10-Ks | Cameco says “long-term contracted book ~235M lbs” but does not name customers |
| Ticker | Company | Price | Day Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| CCJ | Cameco Corp | $120.66 | ▲ 4.0% |
| URA | Global X Uranium ETF | $55.86 | ▲ 9.6% |
| NXE | NexGen Energy | $12.69 | ▲ 11.4% |
| DNN | Denison Mines | $3.88 | ▲ 9.0% |
| UUUU | Energy Fuels Inc | $20.49 | ▲ 11.4% |
| Country | Company | 2024 tU | 2025 tU | 2030e tU | Share 2025 | Notes |
|---|
| Country | Reactors | Installed GWe | Cap Factor | Effective GWe | tU/yr | M lbs U3O8/yr | Market Role |
|---|
| Period | Spot Range | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| 2011–2016 | $20–$55 | Fukushima overhang; Japan fleet shutdown |
| 2016–2020 | $18–$30 | Bear market floor; KAP cutting output 25% |
| 2020–2021 | $29–$45 | Sprott physical trust launch; Cigar Lake COVID closure |
| 2022 | $44–$64 | Ukraine/Russia sanctions risk; utility re-contracting starts |
| 2023 | $49–$91 | Supply shortfalls (KAP, Niger coup); US HALEU Act signed |
| 2024 H1 | $86–$106 | Physical trust buying; KAP production cut guidance |
| 2024 H2 | $74–$90 | Correction; KAP revised guidance; demand concern |
| 2025–2026 | $68–$85 | Consolidation; utility contracting urgency building |
Contracting Lag: Utilities sign long-term contracts 2–5 years before delivery. When uncovered positions exceed ~40%, utilities enter the market simultaneously → term price surges ahead of spot.
Current Setup (May 2026): Global uncovered at 28% for 2026, rising to 41% for 2027 and 55% for 2028. EIA UMAR 2024 shows US utilities committed only 29M lbs for 2027 delivery against 39.5M lbs of expected demand — the largest forward gap since the 2007 bull market. Utilities needing 2027–2029 delivery must contract now.
Watch: EIA UMAR 2025 (due June 2026) — if 2027–2028 committed volumes don’t increase significantly from the 29M and 21M lbs in UMAR 2024, expect utilities to accelerate panic-buying in 2026–2027. Cameco quarterly contract announcements are the best real-time leading indicator.
| 2022 Sellers | 2023 Sellers | 2024 Sellers |
|---|---|---|
| AREVA / Orano | AREVA / Orano | BHCB L.L.C. |
| BHP Billiton (Olympic Dam) | BHP Billiton | BHP Billiton |
| Cameco | Cameco | Cameco |
| CGN Global Uranium | Curzon Uranium Trading | Centrus |
| ConverDyn | Energy Fuels | CGN Global Uranium |
| Curzon Uranium Trading | Energy USA | CNNC International |
| Energy USA | Framatome | ConverDyn |
| Idemitsu | Itochu | Curzon Uranium |
| Itochu | Kazatomprom | enCore Energy |
| Joshua Energy DAC | MTM Trading | Energy Fuels Holding |
| Kazatomprom | Nuclear Fuel Services | Energy USA |
| Louisiana Energy Services | Orano | Framatome (LEU EUP) |
| Macquarie Bank | Quasar Resources | Itochu |
| Seller | Type | Key Assets | US Market Role | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameco (CCJ) | Producer | McArthur River, Cigar Lake, Inkai JV | Largest contracted supplier; ~20% of US deliveries | Low — Canadian, diversified |
| Kazatomprom (KAP) | Producer | FSU ISR operations, ~45% global supply | ~20–25% of US deliveries; via traders & direct | Medium — geopolitical, production misses |
| Orano (AREVA) | Producer | Cigar Lake JV, Niger (lost), Kazakhstan | Long-term contracts with US utilities; Niger disruption | Medium — Niger exit is structural loss |
| ConverDyn | Converter | Metropolis Works (US only UF6 converter) | Critical US conversion bottleneck; ~30% US conversion | High — single US conversion facility |
| Centrus (LEU) | Enricher | Piketon HALEU demo, SWU resale | US enrichment security; small volumes but strategic | Low — government-backed |
| CGN / CNNC | State-owned | Chinese uranium trading arms | Declining US role; US ban risk under current sanctions | High — Section 232 / URAA exposure |
| Traders (Curzon, Macquarie, Joshua) | Intermediary | Physical inventory, spot/term arbitrage | Significant share of spot and short-term deliveries | Medium — credit/counterparty risk |
“EU&I has entered into fuel contracts that cover 100% of its uranium concentrates through at least 2029, 100% of its conversion services through at least 2034, 100% of its enrichment services through at least 2033, and 100% of its fabrication services requirements for these plants through at least 2029.”
“We engage a diverse set of suppliers to secure the nuclear fuel needed to continue to operate our nuclear fleet long-term. Approximately 35% of our uranium concentrate requirements from 2026 through 2030 are supplied by three suppliers.”
“Alabama Power and Georgia Power have multiple contracts covering their nuclear fuel needs for uranium, conversion services, enrichment services, and fuel fabrication with remaining terms up to 10 years.”
“DESC has contracts covering its nuclear fuel needs for uranium, conversion services and enrichment services. These contracts have varying expiration dates through 2032.”
“[FPL has] several contracts for the supply of uranium and the conversion, enrichment and fabrication of nuclear fuel with expiration dates through 2039; … Approximately $8.7 billion of related commitments are included in the estimated capital expenditures table.”
“Xcel Energy secures contracts for uranium concentrates, uranium conversion, uranium enrichment and fuel fabrication to operate its nuclear plants. We use varying contract lengths as well as multiple producers for uranium concentrates, conversion services and enrichment services to minimize potential impacts caused by supply interruptions due to geographic concentration.”
“The participant owners of Palo Verde are continually identifying their future nuclear fuel resource needs and negotiating arrangements to fill those needs.”
“Our fuel strategy is to maintain certain levels of uranium in inventory and to make periodic purchases to support such levels.”
“Entergy and its subsidiaries may utilize fixed- and variable-price forward physical purchase and sales contracts, futures, financial swaps and option contracts to manage exposure to market prices of… uranium and its conversion and enrichment…”