US Uranium Supply Origin & Contract Gap

Source: EIA-858 Uranium Marketing Annual Report 2024 • Released Sep 30, 2025 • Next edition expected June 2026 • Generated by uranium-edge
2024 Total Delivered
55.9M lbs
avg $52.71/lb
New Contracts (2024)
$86.20/lb
+64% vs delivered avg — utilities paying up
Utility Inventory
126.4M lbs
3.2 yrs at current demand
Friendly-Nation Share
60%
Canada + Australia + US + Namibia
Russia Share 2024
3.7%
vs 16.5% in 2020 — declining
Gap (10-yr accumulated)
52M lbs
New LT contracts needed 2025-2034

US Uranium Purchases by Country of Origin (2020–2024)

27M 54M 81M 109M Canada: 11.0M lbs Kazakhstan: 10.8M lbs Australia: 5.6M lbs Uzbekistan: 3.9M lbs Russia: 8.1M lbs Namibia: 2.5M lbs Niger: 2.0M lbs United States: 3.6M lbs Malawi: 0.2M lbs South Africa: 0.1M lbs 2020 96.3M Canada: 11.1M lbs Kazakhstan: 10.0M lbs Australia: 3.6M lbs Uzbekistan: 4.4M lbs Russia: 4.8M lbs Namibia: 2.0M lbs Niger: 1.8M lbs United States: 2.1M lbs Malawi: 0.1M lbs South Africa: 0.0M lbs 2021 79.9M Canada: 18.6M lbs Kazakhstan: 11.0M lbs Australia: 8.6M lbs Uzbekistan: 4.4M lbs Russia: 3.4M lbs Namibia: 2.2M lbs Niger: 1.2M lbs United States: 4.3M lbs Malawi: 0.5M lbs South Africa: 0.4M lbs 2022 109.1M Canada: 13.2M lbs Kazakhstan: 10.6M lbs Australia: 10.6M lbs Uzbekistan: 4.9M lbs Russia: 6.0M lbs Namibia: 1.5M lbs Niger: 1.4M lbs United States: 2.4M lbs Malawi: 0.1M lbs South Africa: 0.3M lbs 2023 51.6M Canada: 18.6M lbs Kazakhstan: 12.4M lbs Australia: 8.6M lbs Uzbekistan: 4.5M lbs Russia: 2.0M lbs Namibia: 2.2M lbs Niger: 1.4M lbs United States: 4.3M lbs Malawi: 0.3M lbs South Africa: 0.7M lbs 2024 54.9M Canada Kazakhstan Australia Russia Uzbekistan Namibia US/Other
2024 country mix: Canada 34%, Kazakhstan 22%, Australia 16%, Uzbekistan 8%, Russia 4%. Friendly-nation sourcing at 60%.
Russia Share Declining 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 16.5% 2020 3.8% 2021 2.3% 2022 11.7% 2023 3.7% 2024
Russia ban in motion: UFPA (2024) prohibits most Russian uranium imports. 2024 deliveries already down to 3.7% from 16.5% in 2020. ~8M lbs/yr of replacement demand must come from Western producers.

Implied US Procurement by Producer (2024, via Country Attribution)

EIA-858 individual utility data is withheld. Attribution uses country-of-origin totals × estimated producer market-share weights (public filings + industry data). Confidence: High for Canada/Kazakhstan/US; Medium for other countries.

TickerProducerImplied Lbs ShareSource CountriesStatus
CCJCameco (JV)17.3M31.5%Kazakhstan, CanadaInvestable
PALAFPaladin/Husab4.6M8.4%Australia, NamibiaInvestable
UUUUEnergy Fuels1.7M3.2%United StatesInvestable
UECUranium Energy1.3M2.4%United StatesInvestable
DNNDenison Mines0.9M1.7%CanadaInvestable
EUenCore Energy0.9M1.6%United StatesInvestable
KAPKazatomprom9.9M18.0%KazakhstanBroker/Other
otherLotus Resources7.9M14.3%Niger, Namibia, Kazakhstan, Malawi, Australia, Canada, South Africa, United StatesBroker/Other
stateCGN/Husab Mine7.4M13.5%Russia, Namibia, UzbekistanState-owned
BHPBHP (Olympic Dam)3.0M5.5%AustraliaBroker/Other
Key takeaway: Cameco (CCJ) is by far the single largest supplier to US utilities (~Canada 85% × 18.6M lbs + Kazakhstan JV). Paladin (PALAF) is the primary Australian conduit. US domestic producers (UUUU, UEC, EU) collectively supply only ~4.3M lbs — less than 8% of US demand.

Historical Procurement & Utility Inventory Trends

Historical Procurement (M lbs) 20 40 60 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Total LT Contracts
2024 inflection: Total deliveries rose to 55.9M lbs (up from 40.3M in 2018 trough) as utilities reload after years of inventory drawdown. Long-term contract share remains dominant at ~90%.
Utility Uranium Inventory (M lbs) 40 80 120 2015: 121.1M lbs (2.9 yrs coverage) 2016: 128.0M lbs (3.0 yrs coverage) 2016 2017: 123.9M lbs (3.0 yrs coverage) 2018: 111.2M lbs (2.6 yrs coverage) 2018 2019: 113.1M lbs (2.7 yrs coverage) 2020: 106.7M lbs (2.5 yrs coverage) 2020 2021: 108.5M lbs (2.6 yrs coverage) 2022: 102.4M lbs (2.4 yrs coverage) 2022 2023: 110.0M lbs (2.6 yrs coverage) 2024: 126.4M lbs (3.0 yrs coverage) 2024 2yr floor
Inventory rebuilding: Utility-owned inventory hit 126.4M lbs in 2024 — highest since 2016. Represents 3.2x annual consumption. Comfortable near-term, but new long-term contracts being signed at $86/lb signals utilities see no price relief ahead.

US Fleet Uncovered Position Model — 2025–2034

Existing long-term contracts roll off ~8%/yr. Spot purchase rate held at ~12%. Gap = demand not covered by existing LT book — requires new long-term contracting. Model is fleet-aggregate; actual utility positions vary.

10M 20M 30M 40M 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 Gap Projected Demand Existing LT Contracts (est.) Uncovered Gap → New LT needed
Year Demand (M lbs) LT Committed (est) Spot Est Gap (New LT needed) Inv Buffer (M lbs)
20254045.84.70.0126
202639.442.14.70.0121
202739.638.74.80.0116
202839.835.64.80.0111
202940.032.84.82.4106
203040.230.24.85.2101
203140.427.84.87.896
203240.625.64.910.191
203340.823.64.912.386
203441.021.74.914.481
10-yr Total 401 324 48 52
Structural bull case: The accumulated 10-year procurement gap of 52M lbs must be filled by new long-term contracts — likely at prices well above current spot. 2024 new contracts averaged $86/lb vs 53 spot, confirming utilities are already locking in supply at substantial premiums. This sustained demand overhang structurally advantages producers with near-term production: CCJ, UUUU, UEC, EU, PALAF.
Data & Methodology
All supply data from EIA-858 Uranium Marketing Annual Report (2024 edition, released Sep 30, 2025; next edition expected June 2026). Per-utility purchase data is withheld by EIA; this report uses fleet-aggregate country-of-origin totals. Producer attribution weights are derived from publicly available market share estimates (Cameco annual reports, Kazatomprom filings, BHP disclosures) and are approximate. Uncovered position model uses simplified LT roll-off assumption; actual contract tenors vary. Do not use for investment decisions without independent verification.