💰 Uranium Producer P&L Sensitivity Model

Revenue · EBITDA · FCF at each spot price scenario · CCJ contract book vs pure-spot leverage · Developer NPV sensitivity · Position sizing framework
Sources: CCJ price sensitivity table (Dec 31 2025) · Company 2025 annual reports · Feasibility studies
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📊 Producer P&L at Selected Spot Price

⚡ CCJ Contract Lock-In vs Pure-Spot Leverage

CCJ Realized Price 2026–2030 (Official Sensitivity Table) $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 Spot $40/lb $40 Spot $60/lb $60 Spot $80/lb $80 Spot $100/lb $100 Spot $120/lb $120 Spot $140/lb $140 Spot $160/lb $160 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 At $160 spot: CCJ earns only $71/lb in 2026 (44% discount) But earns $104/lb in 2030 as LT book expires
The CCJ contract paradox: At $160 spot, CCJ only realizes $71/lb in 2026 — because ~93% of their 30M lb book is under LT contracts with floor prices set years ago. But by 2030, as the book rolls off, they realize $104/lb. CCJ is a 2029-2030 story, not a 2026 story.

Implication: In a $80-100 spot environment, pure-spot names (PALAF, UEC) dramatically outperform CCJ on earnings leverage. CCJ's value proposition is balance sheet quality + Westinghouse stability.
EBITDA Sensitivity: $M per $1/lb Spot Move EU $0.8M UUUU $1.1M UEC $1.6M PALAF $4.1M CCJ $7.5M
Leverage ladder at $80 spot: For every $1/lb uranium moves, PALAF generates the most incremental EBITDA per dollar of spot move relative to its current production scale. CCJ generates the least because their realized price barely tracks spot. This is your position sizing guide.

🏗️ Developer NAV Sensitivity (NXE & DNN)

NPV8% (post-tax) estimated from feasibility study base case, scaled by incremental margin × discounted resource. P/NAV uses current enterprise value vs live prices. Implied share price assumes 1.0× P/NAV re-rating.

Why developers dominate at high prices: NXE's Arrow costs only $4.57/lb to produce. At $160 spot the margin is $155/lb on 256M lbs of resource. At 1.0× P/NAV, that's an implied enterprise value of ~$10B+ — multiples of current market cap. The catch: permitting risk and 3+ year timeline to production. Size accordingly.

🎯 Position Sizing Framework by Spot Price Level

Spot RangeMarket Phase Recommended AllocationWatch For (Catalyst)
$40–55Consolidation / bearCCJ 50%, SPUT 30%, UUUU 10%, wait on othersKAP beats guidance, new LT contracts signed, SPUT premium returns
$55–80Recovery / early bullCCJ 35%, SPUT 20%, PALAF 20%, UEC 15%, NXE 10%Utility panic buying accelerates, EIA-858 new contract price rises
$80–100Bull confirmedPALAF 30%, UEC 25%, CCJ 20%, NXE 15%, UUUU 10%CCJ LT book prevents full spot participation; pure-spot names outperform
$100–130Mania phasePALAF 35%, NXE 30%, DNN 20%, UEC 15%Developer NAVs explode; reduce CCJ (contract cap); NXE/DNN option value unlocks
$130+Spike / overshootNXE 40%, DNN 30%, PALAF 20%, trim othersOption value dominates; watch for demand destruction signals
Core principle: CCJ is quality-of-earnings; PALAF/UEC/UUUU are earnings-per-spot-dollar; NXE/DNN are option value on the long cycle. Most portfolios should own all three types in different weights depending on where spot is and where you think it's going. Never size NXE/DNN above 30% combined until FID is confirmed.
Model Assumptions
CCJ: 30M lbs sales, realized price from official sensitivity table (Dec 31 2025), AISC US$34/lb, G&A $80M, capex $150M growth + sustaining in AISC, Westinghouse contribution $350M EBITDA (49% × ~$714M). PALAF: 4.1M lbs, cost of production $46/lb (FY2026 guidance mid), minimal LT contracts. UEC: 1.8M lbs ramping, total cost $34.35/lb (Q1 FY2026 actual), debt-free. UUUU: 1.2M lbs uranium, AISC $42/lb, $15M REE/isotope EBITDA. EU: 1.0M lbs, AISC $45/lb. NXE NPV: scaled from FS at $50 spot (C$3.5B pre-tax NPV), post-tax factor 0.73, NPV factor 0.30. DNN NPV: from Phoenix ISR FS (after-tax NPV8% $1.48B at ~$44 spot), 95% DNN ownership. EV/EBITDA requires live market data (fetched via yfinance if available). This is a model, not investment advice. Actual results will differ.