Every reactor under construction represents ~0.39M lbs U3O8/yr of incremental demand once it reaches commercial operation — demand that does not yet exist in the spot or term market. The 59 reactors currently under construction will add 27M lbs/yr to annual world demand when complete — equivalent to adding 15% to current world production of ~175M lbs/yr. The planned pipeline adds another 22M lbs/yr beyond that. None of this demand is reflected in current utility contracting books.
| Country | Units | Capacity | Annual U3O8 demand |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | 23 | 27.9 GWe | 11.01M lbs/yr |
| 🇮🇳 India | 10 | 7.2 GWe | 3.24M lbs/yr |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | 4 | 4.9 GWe | 1.93M lbs/yr |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 4 | 4.8 GWe | 1.89M lbs/yr |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt | 4 | 4.8 GWe | 1.89M lbs/yr |
| 🇬🇧 UK | 2 | 3.3 GWe | 1.29M lbs/yr |
| 🇰🇷 S. Korea | 2 | 2.8 GWe | 1.10M lbs/yr |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | 2 | 2.8 GWe | 1.10M lbs/yr |
| 🇧🇩 Bangladesh | 2 | 2.4 GWe | 0.95M lbs/yr |
| 🇺🇸 USA | 2 | 1.6 GWe | 0.65M lbs/yr |
| 🇫🇷 France | 1 | 1.6 GWe | 0.63M lbs/yr |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | 1 | 1.4 GWe | 0.55M lbs/yr |
| 🇸🇰 Slovakia | 2 | 0.9 GWe | 0.37M lbs/yr |
These reactors have poured first concrete or are in active nuclear installation. Expected commercial operation dates are builder estimates — assume 12–24 month slippage for non-Chinese projects. China is executing at ~6 units/yr and consistently hits schedule. Rosatom projects (Turkey, Egypt, Bangladesh) are running 18–36 months behind. UK (Hinkley) has slipped repeatedly and is now targeting 2030+ at £35B+ cost.
| Country | Project | Units | Capacity | Type | U3O8 demand | Expected | Contractor | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇫🇷 France | Flamanville 3 | 1 | 1.60 GWe | LWR | 0.63M lbs | IMMINENT 2025 | EDF | First sync Dec 2024; full commercial ~2025 |
| 🇺🇸 USA | Palisades | 1 | 0.81 GWe | LWR | 0.32M lbs | IMMINENT 2025 | Holtec | Restart; loan guarantee secured |
| 🇨🇳 China | Xiapu 1 (CFR-600) | 1 | 0.60 GWe | LWR | 0.24M lbs | IMMINENT 2026 | CNNC | Fast reactor demo — uses natural U, small footprint |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | Barakah 4 | 1 | 1.40 GWe | LWR | 0.55M lbs | IMMINENT 2026 | KEPCO | APR-1400; units 1–3 operational |
| 🇸🇰 Slovakia | Mochovce 3&4 | 2 | 0.94 GWe | LWR | 0.37M lbs | IMMINENT 2026 | Westinghouse | Unit 3 online; unit 4 2026 |
| 🇨🇳 China | Sanmen 3&4 | 2 | 2.50 GWe | LWR | 0.99M lbs | NEAR-TERM 2027 | SNPTC | CAP1000 (3rd gen PWR) |
| 🇨🇳 China | Haiyang 3&4 | 2 | 2.50 GWe | LWR | 0.99M lbs | NEAR-TERM 2027 | SNPTC | CAP1000 |
| 🇨🇳 China | Zhangzhou 1&2 | 2 | 2.44 GWe | LWR | 0.96M lbs | NEAR-TERM 2027 | CNNC | Hualong One |
| 🇮🇳 India | Rajasthan 7&8 | 2 | 1.40 GWe | PHWR | 0.72M lbs | NEAR-TERM 2027 | NPCIL | 700 MWe PHWR |
| 🇮🇳 India | Kakrapar 3&4 | 2 | 1.40 GWe | PHWR | 0.72M lbs | NEAR-TERM 2027 | NPCIL | 700 MWe PHWR; unit 3 already critical |
| 🇮🇳 India | Kudankulam 3&4 | 2 | 2.00 GWe | LWR | 0.79M lbs | NEAR-TERM 2027 | Rosatom | VVER-1000 with Russia |
| 🇧🇩 Bangladesh | Rooppur 1&2 | 2 | 2.40 GWe | LWR | 0.95M lbs | NEAR-TERM 2027 | Rosatom | VVER-1200; first nuke in BD |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | Kursk II 1&2 | 2 | 2.50 GWe | LWR | 0.99M lbs | NEAR-TERM 2027 | Rosatom | VVER-TOI to replace retiring Kursk 1 |
| 🇨🇳 China | Changjiang 3&4 | 2 | 2.50 GWe | LWR | 0.99M lbs | NEAR-TERM 2028 | CNNC | ACPR1000 |
| 🇨🇳 China | Taipingling 1&2 | 2 | 2.44 GWe | LWR | 0.96M lbs | NEAR-TERM 2028 | CGN | HPR1000 |
| 🇮🇳 India | Gorakhpur 1&2 | 2 | 0.44 GWe | PHWR | 0.23M lbs | NEAR-TERM 2028 | NPCIL | 220 MWe PHWR — long delayed |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | Akkuyu 1–4 | 4 | 4.80 GWe | LWR | 1.89M lbs | NEAR-TERM 2028 | Rosatom | VVER-1200; unit 1 fuel load 2025 |
| 🇺🇸 USA | TMI Unit 1 | 1 | 0.84 GWe | LWR | 0.33M lbs | NEAR-TERM 2028 | Constellation | Restart for Microsoft data center PPA |
| 🇨🇳 China | Lufeng 1–6 | 6 | 7.50 GWe | LWR | 2.96M lbs | MID-TERM 2029 | CGN | HPR1000 Hualong One |
| 🇨🇳 China | Fangchenggang 3&4 | 2 | 2.44 GWe | LWR | 0.96M lbs | MID-TERM 2029 | CGN | HPR1000 |
| 🇨🇳 China | Xudabao 3&4 | 2 | 2.50 GWe | LWR | 0.99M lbs | MID-TERM 2030 | CNNC | Hualong One |
| 🇨🇳 China | Huizhou 1&2 | 2 | 2.50 GWe | LWR | 0.99M lbs | MID-TERM 2030 | CGN | HPR1000 |
| 🇪🇬 Egypt | El-Dabaa 1–4 | 4 | 4.80 GWe | LWR | 1.89M lbs | MID-TERM 2030 | Rosatom | VVER-1200; construction active |
| 🇬🇧 UK | Hinkley Point C 1&2 | 2 | 3.26 GWe | LWR | 1.29M lbs | MID-TERM 2030 | EDF/CGN | EPR; cost now £35B+; delayed |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | Leningrad II 3&4 | 2 | 2.40 GWe | LWR | 0.95M lbs | MID-TERM 2030 | Rosatom | VVER-1200 |
| 🇮🇳 India | Kudankulam 5&6 | 2 | 2.00 GWe | LWR | 0.79M lbs | MID-TERM 2031 | Rosatom | VVER-1000 |
| 🇰🇷 S. Korea | Shin Hanul 3&4 | 2 | 2.80 GWe | LWR | 1.10M lbs | LONG-TERM 2032 | KHNP | APR-1400 |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | Choczewo 1&2 | 2 | 2.80 GWe | LWR | 1.10M lbs | LONG-TERM 2033 | Westinghouse | AP1000; FID expected 2026 |
These projects have government approval, signed agreements, or firm developer commitments, but have not yet broken ground. Assume 50% execution rate on these numbers — slippage, cancellation, and financing failure are common outside of China. Even at 50%, this pipeline adds ~11M lbs/yr to world demand — roughly 6% of current production.
| Country | Project | Units | Capacity | U3O8 demand | Target yr | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇷🇴 Romania | Cernavodă 3&4 | 2 | 1.42 GWe | 0.73M lbs | 2031 | CANDU; IDA signed with SNN + US partners |
| 🇨🇳 China | ~20 units 2026–2030 approvals | 20 | 25.00 GWe | 9.86M lbs | 2032 | China targets 10 approvals/yr; 100 GWe by 2035 |
| 🇮🇳 India | 10× 700 MWe PHWR fleet | 10 | 7.00 GWe | 3.59M lbs | 2033 | Fleet order placed; Gorakhpur, Mahi Banswara, Kaiga 5&6 |
| 🇺🇸 USA | SMR pipeline (X-energy, BWRX-300, etc.) | 4 | 1.12 GWe | 0.44M lbs | 2034 | DOE funding; Wyoming (TerraPower), WA, TX, GA sites |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | Ontario BWRX-300 fleet (4–8 units) | 6 | 1.80 GWe | 0.71M lbs | 2034 | OPG/SNC-Lavalin; Darlington New Nuclear site |
| 🇮🇳 India | 6× VVER-1200 with Russia | 6 | 7.20 GWe | 2.84M lbs | 2035 | IGA signed; site selection ongoing |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 2× AP1000 (Riyadh area) | 2 | 2.50 GWe | 0.99M lbs | 2035 | Westinghouse preferred; 123 agreement not yet signed |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | Pątnów 1&2 | 2 | 2.00 GWe | 0.79M lbs | 2035 | Westinghouse AP1000; second site |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | New build program | 2 | 2.40 GWe | 0.95M lbs | 2035 | Government policy reversal; site TBD |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | Borssele 2&3 | 2 | 2.00 GWe | 0.79M lbs | 2035 | Tender launched; Westinghouse/EDF shortlisted |
| 🇰🇪 Kenya | 2× SMR (KPLC) | 2 | 0.60 GWe | 0.24M lbs | 2035 | NuScale/X-energy discussions; IAEA support |
| 🇨🇿 Czechia | Dukovany 5 | 1 | 1.20 GWe | 0.47M lbs | 2036 | Westinghouse AP1000; contract signed 2024 |
Individual SMRs are small (227 MWe average here). Demand impact before 2032 is minimal — but SMR fuel orders create new enrichment and conversion demand ahead of operation. TRISO and metal fuel designs (Kairos, Oklo, TerraPower) use High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) — a fuel type with virtually no civilian supply chain today. The enrichment bottleneck could pull uranium demand forward. Watch: Centrus/DOE HALEU production contract and whether Russia's TENEX ban removes the only current HALEU source.
| Country | Design | MWe | Fuel type | Target COD | Status | Backer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | Kairos KP-FHR | 140 MWe | TRISO | 2027 | Hermes demo under NRC review; TN site | DOE ARDP grant |
| 🇺🇸 USA | Oklo Aurora | 15 MWe | Metal | 2027 | NRC application refiled 2023; Idaho site | Sam Altman / DOE |
| 🇺🇸 USA | TerraPower Natrium | 345 MWe | LEU+ | 2030 | Construction start 2024; Kemmerer WY | Bill Gates / DOE $2B |
| 🇺🇸 USA | X-energy Xe-100 | 80 MWe | TRISO | 2030 | Engineering design; Dow Chemical PPA | DOE/Dow/Amazon |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | ARC-100 | 100 MWe | Metal | 2030 | CNSC Phase 1 review; NB Power MOU | ARC Nuclear/NB Power |
| 🇺🇸 USA | Holtec SMR-300 | 300 MWe | LEU | 2031 | NRC pre-application; Palisades site option | Holtec |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | GE-Hitachi BWRX-300 | 300 MWe | LEU | 2034 | OPG Darlington site licensed; FID 2026 | OPG/Ontario |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | GE-Hitachi BWRX-300 | 300 MWe | LEU | 2035 | Site assessment; ORLEN + GEH MOU | ORLEN/GEH |
| 🇬🇧 UK | Rolls-Royce SMR | 470 MWe | LEU | 2035 | GDA submitted to ONR/EA; site TBD | UK Gov £210M + private |
Assumes LWR: 0.050 lbs U3O8/MWh, PHWR: 0.065 lbs/MWh, 90% capacity factor. Demand shown is the annual run-rate once each cohort reaches commercial operation. These are incremental to today's ~175M lbs/yr world demand. The 2026–2028 cohort alone adds ~13M lbs/yr — equivalent to starting up a second Cigar Lake. Against a mine supply curve that grows ~3M lbs/yr in optimistic scenarios, this pipeline demand accelerates the structural deficit materially.
| Year | Added that year (M lbs/yr) | Cumulative (M lbs/yr) | vs. current world demand (~175M lbs) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.16M lbs | 2.11M lbs | +1.2% |
| 2027 | 7.09M lbs | 9.20M lbs | +5.3% |
| 2028 | 4.40M lbs | 13.59M lbs | +7.8% |
| 2029 | 3.92M lbs | 17.51M lbs | +10.0% |
| 2030 | 6.09M lbs | 23.61M lbs | +13.5% |
| 2031 | 0.79M lbs | 24.39M lbs | +13.9% |
| 2032 | 1.10M lbs | 25.50M lbs | +14.6% |
| 2033 | 1.10M lbs | 26.60M lbs | +15.2% |
| 2034 | 0.00M lbs | 26.60M lbs | +15.2% |
| 2035 | 0.00M lbs | 26.60M lbs | +15.2% |