☢️ Uranium Global Supply/Demand Balance 2024–2035 Mlbs U₃O₈

Primary mine supply by region · secondary supply · 3 demand scenarios · structural deficit · Generated May 21, 2026
32 Mlbs/yr
2035 deficit (base)
206 Mlbs
Cumulative deficit 2024–2035
+30%
Demand growth (base, 2024–2035)
+15%
Supply growth (2024–2035)
2031
Carry inv. exhausted (base)
2028
Carry inv. exhausted (bull)
170 → 195
Total supply Mlbs/yr
175 → 227
Base demand Mlbs/yr
⚖️ Supply/Demand Balance
📉 Deficit Gap
📋 Annual Data
🏭 Supply Regions
📝 Assumptions
How to read: The red shaded zone is the structural deficit — the gap between total supply and base demand, filled today by inventory drawdown. Dashed lines = bear (blue) and bull (rose) demand scenarios.
Aggregate: Total Supply vs Demand
Regional Supply Breakdown (stacked)
Kazakhstan
Canada
Namibia
Uzbekistan
Australia
Russia
Other / Niger
New mines
Secondary
Bear demand
Base demand
Bull demand
Deficit zone
Annual deficit = demand − total supply (primary + secondary). Positive = deficit (covered by inventory drawdown). Negative = surplus (inventory rebuild). The base scenario shows a persistently widening deficit from 5 Mlbs in 2024 to 32 Mlbs in 2035. Bear scenario (blue) briefly crosses into surplus as new mine supply builds.
Cumulative Deficit vs Estimated Carry Inventory (~80 Mlbs)
When the cumulative deficit line crosses the estimated carry inventory level (80 Mlbs), the available spot/trading inventory is structurally exhausted — forcing utilities into long-term term contracts at whatever price clears supply. Base case: 2031. Bull case: 2028. Bear case: never crosses (surplus).
All values Mlbs U₃O₈/yr. Deficit (base) = base demand − total supply. Positive = market deficit. Cumulative deficit = rolling sum of base deficits from 2024.
Year Primary supplySecondaryTotal supply Bear demand Base demand Bull demand Deficit (base)Cumulative deficit
202415515170170175178+55
202515913172172180185+813
202616512177174185193+821
202717011181176191201+1031
202817410184178196210+1243
20291779186180202218+1659
20301818189183207226+1877
20311838191185211232+2097
20321867193186215238+22119
20331877194187219244+25144
20341876193188223250+30174
20351896195189227257+32206
Primary mine supply by country/region. Values in Mlbs U₃O₈/yr. New mines represent the pipeline of projects requiring FID — actual delivery timing is uncertain and skewed to the right.
Region20242035 Δ 202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035 Notes
Kazakhstan (KAP)
5765+85759616263646565656565652024 below nameplate due to sulfuric acid shortage (guidance 21,000–22,500 tU). Gradual ramp as reagent supply normalises. Plateau ~65 Mlbs from 2028.
Canada (CCJ + Orano)
3540+5353637373838393940404040McArthur River/Key Lake + Cigar Lake (Cameco) + McClean Lake JV (Orano). Brownfield optimisation drives modest growth; no new greenfield.
Namibia
2428+4242627282930303029292828Rossing (~9 Mlbs) + Husab (~13 Mlbs) + Langer Heinrich (restarted 2024, ~6 Mlbs). Peak ~30 Mlbs by 2028–2031; gradual decline as Rossing ages.
Uzbekistan (Navoi)
15150151515151515151515151515State enterprise NMMC; ISR operations. Stable ~15 Mlbs/yr. Largely contracted to Russia and China — limited availability to Western buyers.
Australia
1214+2121212131313131314141414Olympic Dam (BHP, uranium as copper byproduct) + Beverley/Four Mile ISR. Modest growth; Olympic Dam copper strategy drives volume.
Russia (ARMZ)
880888888888888ARMZ + Uranium One JV. Mostly supplies Russian fuel cycle. Western buyers restricted post-2024 US import ban on Russian uranium.
Other / Niger
43-1433333333333Niger (SOMAIR/Orano) largely suspended post-2023 coup. Others: Ukraine (~1), India (~1), China domestic, various juniors.
New mines (pipeline)
016+1600245681012131416US ISR restarts (URG Shirley Basin, UUUU ramp) from 2026. NexGen Arrow FID targeted ~2027 — first ore realistic 2030. Denison Wheeler River ISR adds volume from 2028+. All subject to FID/permits.
Secondary supply
156-915131211109887766HEU downblending (largely complete), enrichment tails re-enrichment (declining as SWU costs rise), US DOE excess inventory sales. Structural decline as these finite sources exhaust.
Model approach: All data is static, compiled from published sources. No live data feeds. Quantities in Mlbs U₃O₈/yr. Conversion: 1 tU = 2.5994 lbs U₃O₈. Primary supply figures are 100% basis (not ownership-adjusted). Secondary supply is a consensus estimate — the most uncertain input.
Demand Scenarios
Scenario20242035GrowthKey Assumptions
Bear170189+11%Japan stalls at 12 restarts. Europe no new builds. China 7 units/yr. Economic slowdown reduces electricity demand growth.
Base (WNA Ref.)175227+30%WNA Nuclear Fuel Report 2023 reference scenario. Japan 20–25 restarts. China 10 units/yr. US SLR life extensions. AI/data centre power growth.
Bull178257+44%All Japan restarts. US 100-year SLR granted. China 12–15 units/yr. SMR pre-orders drive forward contracting. Tech nuclear PPAs (Microsoft, Google, Amazon).
Supply Assumptions
Region20242035Key Assumptions
Kazakhstan (KAP)57652024 below nameplate due to sulfuric acid shortage (guidance 21,000–22,500 tU). Gradual ramp as reagent supply normalises. Plateau ~65 Mlbs from 2028.
Canada (CCJ + Orano)3540McArthur River/Key Lake + Cigar Lake (Cameco) + McClean Lake JV (Orano). Brownfield optimisation drives modest growth; no new greenfield.
Namibia2428Rossing (~9 Mlbs) + Husab (~13 Mlbs) + Langer Heinrich (restarted 2024, ~6 Mlbs). Peak ~30 Mlbs by 2028–2031; gradual decline as Rossing ages.
Uzbekistan (Navoi)1515State enterprise NMMC; ISR operations. Stable ~15 Mlbs/yr. Largely contracted to Russia and China — limited availability to Western buyers.
Australia1214Olympic Dam (BHP, uranium as copper byproduct) + Beverley/Four Mile ISR. Modest growth; Olympic Dam copper strategy drives volume.
Russia (ARMZ)88ARMZ + Uranium One JV. Mostly supplies Russian fuel cycle. Western buyers restricted post-2024 US import ban on Russian uranium.
Other / Niger43Niger (SOMAIR/Orano) largely suspended post-2023 coup. Others: Ukraine (~1), India (~1), China domestic, various juniors.
New mines (pipeline)016US ISR restarts (URG Shirley Basin, UUUU ramp) from 2026. NexGen Arrow FID targeted ~2027 — first ore realistic 2030. Denison Wheeler River ISR adds volume from 2028+. All subject to FID/permits.
Secondary supply 156 HEU downblending (largely complete), enrichment tails re-enrichment (declining as SWU costs rise), US DOE excess inventory sales. Structural decline as these finite sources exhaust.
Sources
Caveats: New mine pipeline volumes are aspirational — history shows uranium projects run 2–5 years behind schedule. Secondary supply is the most contested estimate; some analysts put it 5–8 Mlbs higher. Russia supply shown at flat 8 Mlbs assumes it continues to self-consume rather than redirect to Western spot. Kazakhstan is the single largest swing factor — a further production cut or acceleration changes the deficit by ±5 Mlbs/yr immediately.