The Prohibiting Russian Uranium Act (PURA, signed Dec 2024) bans US imports of Russian enriched uranium. DOE waivers cover existing contracts through December 22, 2027. After that date, ~8.5M SWU/yr of US utility enrichment contracts with TENEX/Rosatom become illegal. Western enrichment is already running at 85–90% utilization. There is no idle capacity to absorb this volume. Every SWU the US imports from Russia today represents a SWU that must be re-contracted at whatever Western enrichers will charge — likely $180–200/SWU by 2028.
Uranium (U3O8) is only ~30–40% of total fuel cycle cost. Conversion + enrichment + fabrication make up the rest. A utility that has secured uranium but cannot find SWU capacity at reasonable prices cannot run its reactor. This creates a secondary demand signal: utilities that scramble to lock up SWU will simultaneously accelerate uranium contracting — because contracted SWU without contracted U3O8 feed is worthless. The enrichment gap pulls uranium contracting forward, compressing the timeline before spot price must respond.
| Year | Demand (M SWU) | Western supply | Russian supply | Total supply | Gap (deficit) | SWU spot est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 50.0M | 21.5M | 8.5M | 30.0M | +20.0M | $120/SWU |
| 2025 | 51.0M | 21.8M | 8.0M | 29.8M | +21.2M | $135/SWU |
| 2026 | 52.0M | 22.0M | 7.0M | 29.0M | +23.0M | $148/SWU |
| 2027 | 53.0M | 22.3M | 5.5M | 27.8M | +25.2M | $158/SWU |
| 2028 ← PURA cliff | 54.0M | 22.5M | 4.0M | 26.5M | +27.5M | $165/SWU |
| 2029 | 55.0M | 22.8M | 2.0M | 24.8M | +30.2M | $175/SWU |
| 2030 | 57.0M | 23.5M | 0.5M | 24.0M | +33.0M | $185/SWU |
| 2031 | 59.0M | 24.5M | 0.0M | 24.5M | +34.5M | $195/SWU |
Congress has been generous with enrichment subsidies but the physics and engineering timelines are fixed: a nuclear-qualified centrifuge cascade takes 5–7 years to design, build, and certify. The PURA cliff is December 2027 — about 20 months away. The money cannot build the machines fast enough. The realistic outcome is: SWU price spike, DOE emergency waivers, or both. Investors should watch SWU spot price as a leading indicator — it prices the shortage before uranium spot does.
Russia operates the world's largest enrichment complex — 4 commercial plants across Siberia and the Urals totaling ~26M SWU/yr, nearly equal to all Western capacity combined. TENEX has been the marginal enricher for Western utilities for two decades — offering below-market SWU on long-term contracts that are now being banned under PURA. The Western enrichment industry never built replacement capacity because Russian SWU was too cheap. That structural underinvestment is now the market's problem.
| Enricher | Status | Capacity | Location | Operational status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇷🇺 TENEX (Rosatom) | ✗ Non-Western | 26.0M SWU | Angarsk/Novouralsk/Seversk/Zelenogorsk | Operating | Largest in world. ~35% of Western utility SWU historically. PURA bans after Dec 2027. |
| 🇪🇺 Urenco (DE/NL/UK) | ✓ Western | 10.3M SWU | Gronau/Almelo/Capenhurst | Operating | Capenhurst UK + Gronau DE + Almelo NL. Fully contracted through 2030+. |
| 🇨🇳 CNNC / CNEC | ✗ Non-Western | 8.0M SWU | Lanzhou / Shaanxi | Operating | Supplies Chinese fleet only. Expanding for 100 GWe target. |
| 🇫🇷 Orano (Georges Besse II) | ✓ Western | 7.5M SWU | Tricastin, France | Operating | Largest single Western plant. Orano owns ~87%, EDF ~5%, others. Contracted. |
| 🇺🇸 Urenco USA | ✓ Western | 3.7M SWU | Eunice, NM | Operating | Only commercial enricher on US soil. Near capacity. |
| 🇺🇸 Centrus (demo cascade) | ✓ Western | 0.0M SWU | Piketon, OH | Demo — 900 kg HALEU/yr | First US-built centrifuges since USEC. HALEU only. 10-100x scale-up needed for commercial. |
High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) is enriched to 5–20% U-235 (vs. standard LEU at <5%). It is required by most advanced and SMR reactor designs (TerraPower Natrium, X-energy Xe-100, Kairos, Oklo). Today, the only civilian HALEU sources are Russian (TENEX) and the Centrus demo cascade (900 kg/yr). The US commercial SMR fleet — if it materializes — will need 40,000–100,000 kg HALEU/yr by 2035. No enricher has announced a commercial HALEU plant. This is not a uranium problem yet — it is an enrichment problem that will become a uranium problem the moment utilities try to fuel-load SMRs. Centrus Energy (LEU) is the only publicly traded pure-play on this gap.
Before uranium can be enriched, it must be converted from U3O8 powder to uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas. This is the conversion step — often ignored in uranium analysis. The Western conversion market is tighter than enrichment: ConverDyn's Metropolis Works (the only US converter) was closed for 6 years (2017–2023) and restarted at partial capacity. Russia's Rosatom conversion capacity (15,000 tU/yr) is now banned. Orano (France) is running near full. Western conversion utilization is ~85–90% — a supply shock for US utilities that previously relied on Russian UF6 feed.
| Converter | Status | Capacity | Operational status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 ConverDyn (Metropolis Works) | ✓ Western | 7,000 tU/yr | Operating (restarted 2023) | Only US UF6 converter. Reopened after 6-yr closure. Running ~4,000 tU/yr vs 7,000 capacity. |
| 🇫🇷 Orano (Malvesi + W-France) | ✓ Western | 14,000 tU/yr | Operating | Largest Western converter. Philippe-le-Bel dissolution + Malvesi fluorination. |
| 🇬🇧 Springfields Fuels (Urenco) | ✓ Western | 6,000 tU/yr | Operating | UK conversion + fuel fabrication integrated. Uranium One feed. |
| 🇷🇺 Rosatom (Seversk) | ✗ Non-Western | 15,000 tU/yr | Operating | Banned for US utilities under PURA. Significant share of Eastern European conversion. |
| 🇨🇳 CNNC (Lanzhou) | ✗ Non-Western | 8,000 tU/yr | Operating | Domestic supply only. Not accessible to Western utilities. |
Western conversion capacity: 27,000 tU/yr
World UF6 need: ~55,000 tU/yr
Russian conversion banned: ~15,000 tU/yr
Western utilization: ~85–90%
Conversion spot (Apr 2026): ~$18–22/kgU vs $6/kgU in 2018
ConverDyn is running at ~4,000 tU/yr vs 7,000 tU/yr nameplate —
a 3,000 tU/yr idle capacity that could partially absorb Russian supply if fully restarted.
Conversion price has tripled since 2020. Unlike enrichment (complex centrifuge infrastructure),
conversion capacity can be brought back faster — ConverDyn's Metropolis Works could reach
7,000 tU/yr capacity within 12–18 months of full restart.
The key watch: ConverDyn (Honeywell JV) restart announcement —
if DOE provides purchase commitments, a full Metropolis restart would partly offset the Russian conversion ban.
Watch DOE conversion purchase tenders as a leading signal.
The enrichment subsidy landscape is defined by a handful of federal proceedings.
Run python uranium_enrichment.py --fetch
to pull live Federal Register data and run Claude analysis on the latest filings.
| Program | Docket / FR citation | What to watch |
|---|---|---|
| HALEU Availability Program | DE-SC0023036 / DOE/CF-0002 | New purchase order awards; Centrus production milestone reports |
| Nuclear Fuel Security Program | DE-FOA-0003013 | Awardee selection (expected H1 2025); capacity commitments |
| PURA waivers | FR 2025-01892 + DOE OE notices | Waiver denials = bullish SWU; waivers granted = supply pressure relieved |
| TENEX contract enforcement | DOE/NE enforcement actions | Any utility penalized for Russian SWU = precedent for Dec 2027 cliff |
| ConverDyn purchase tender | DOE Strategic Reserve | Conversion purchase = signal DOE sees domestic gap; bullish conversion price |
| Centrus HALEU commercial | NRC license amendment + DOE contract | Any announcement of commercial-scale cascade funding = major catalyst |
| Date | Doc # | Title |
|---|---|---|
| Run with --fetch flag to pull live Federal Register data and Claude analysis | ||