US Nuclear Fleet — Remaining U3O8 Demand Backlog

618M lbs

Total Remaining U3O8 Demand
(base case, current licenses)

787M lbs

Bull Case
(if all pending SLRs granted)

+170M lbs

SLR Upside
(pending applications)

40M lbs

Annual US U3O8 Consumption
(current fleet, FY2025)

16 years

Implied Demand Duration
(base case ÷ annual rate)

What this number means for uranium producers: The US nuclear fleet will consume approximately 618M lbs of U3O8 before current operating licenses expire — roughly 4x global annual mine supply (at ~145M lbs/yr mine output). If pending SLR applications are granted, that rises to 787M lbs. Uranium producers like CCJ, NXE, and UEC price long-term supply contracts against this backlog — it underpins the structural demand case regardless of short-term price moves. The US alone represents ~24% of estimated global annual consumption.

📅 License Expiry by Decade

4M lbs

Expiring in 2020s (1% of total)

108M lbs

Expiring in 2030s (17% of total)

349M lbs

Expiring in 2040s (57% of total)

124M lbs

Expiring in 2050s (20% of total)

33M lbs

Expiring in 2060s (5% of total)

📉 GW Retiring Per Year — License Expiry Waterfall

Each bar = GW of nuclear capacity whose license expires that year. Gaps = no retirements. SLR-extended plants shown at SLR expiry date.

📈 Cumulative Remaining Demand Decay Curve

Total M lbs U3O8 remaining to be consumed by US fleet, calculated at each future year. Steep drops indicate years with large license expirations.

🏭 Remaining Demand by Operator

Operator	NERC	Units	GW	Annual U3O8	Remaining (Base)	SLR Upside	Avg Expiry	Watch
Constellation Nuclear	RFC	21	22.89	9.11M	134.9M lbs	+63.4M	2039	10 soon
Duke Energy Carolinas, LLC	SERC	7	7.65	3.07M	62.8M lbs	—	2047
Georgia Power Co	SERC	6	6.68	2.56M	61.2M lbs	—	2049	1 soon
Tennessee Valley Authority	SERC	7	8.84	2.95M	38.3M lbs	+7.1M	2039	4 soon
Arizona Public Service Co	WECC	3	4.14	1.57M	31.3M lbs	—	2046
Florida Power & Light Co	SERC	4	4.02	1.53M	30.0M lbs	—	2046	1 soon
Virginia Electric & Power Co	SERC	4	3.83	1.41M	27.3M lbs	+15.0M	2046
Energy Harbor Nuclear Generation LLC	RFC	4	4.19	1.61M	25.5M lbs	—	2042	1 soon
STP Nuclear Operating Co	TRE	2	2.76	1.09M	23.4M lbs	—	2048
PSEG Nuclear LLC	RFC	3	3.69	1.40M	20.6M lbs	+18.7M	2041	1 soon
Duke Energy Progress - (NC)	SERC	4	3.83	1.51M	16.3M lbs	+22.4M	2036	3 soon
TalenEnergy Susquehanna LLC	RFC	2	2.62	0.93M	15.7M lbs	—	2043
Entergy Louisiana LLC	SERC	2	2.19	0.76M	14.1M lbs	—	2044
NextEra Energy Seabrook LLC	NPCC	1	1.29	0.55M	13.1M lbs	—	2050
Dominion Energy Nuclear Conn Inc	NPCC	2	2.18	0.83M	12.1M lbs	—	2040	1 soon
System Energy Resources, Inc	SERC	1	1.46	0.57M	10.3M lbs	—	2044
DTE Electric Company	RFC	1	1.19	0.50M	9.4M lbs	—	2045
Wolf Creek Nuclear Optg Corp	MRO	1	1.26	0.46M	8.8M lbs	—	2045
Indiana Michigan Power Co	RFC	2	2.38	0.88M	8.4M lbs	—	2036	1 soon
Alabama Power Co	SERC	2	1.89	0.65M	8.3M lbs	—	2039
Entergy Arkansas LLC	SERC	2	1.95	0.76M	7.8M lbs	—	2036	1 soon
nan	WECC	1	1.19	0.39M	6.6M lbs	—	2043
Dominion Energy South Carolina, Inc	SERC	1	1.05	0.41M	6.5M lbs	—	2042
Union Electric Co - (MO)	SERC	1	1.29	0.36M	6.4M lbs	—	2044
Luminant Generation Company LLC	TRE	2	2.95	0.99M	5.4M lbs	+19.9M	2032	2 soon
Northern States Power Co - Minnesota	MRO	3	1.83	0.66M	4.1M lbs	+13.2M	2032	3 soon
Pacific Gas & Electric Co.	WECC	2	2.35	0.88M	3.1M lbs	—	2030	2 soon
NextEra Energy Point Beach LLC	RFC	2	1.25	0.51M	2.8M lbs	+10.2M	2032	2 soon
Nebraska Public Power District	MRO	1	0.83	0.35M	2.8M lbs	—	2034	1 soon

🔬 Unit-Level Detail

Plant	Unit	ST	NERC	MW	CF%	U3O8/yr	Expiry	Yrs Left	License	Remaining	SLR Add
Clinton Power Station	1	IL	SERC	1130	84.2%	417K	2026	0yr	SLR APPLIED	0.0M	+8.3M
Dresden Generating Station	2	IL	RFC	965	87.0%	368K	2029	3yr	SLR APPLIED	1.1M	+7.3M
Nine Mile Point Nuclear Station	1	NY	NPCC	641	86.6%	243K	2029	3yr	SLR APPLIED	0.7M	+4.9M
Diablo Canyon	1	CA	WECC	1182	85.8%	444K	2029	3yr	STATE EXT	1.3M	—
R E Ginna Nuclear Power Plant	1	NY	NPCC	598	96.1%	252K	2029	3yr	SLR APPLIED	0.8M	+5.0M
Monticello Nuclear Facility	1	MN	MRO	679	78.3%	233K	2030	4yr	SLR APPLIED	0.9M	+4.7M
H B Robinson	2	SC	SERC	810	94.7%	336K	2030	4yr	SLR APPLIED	1.3M	+6.7M
Point Beach Nuclear Plant	1	WI	RFC	619	90.3%	245K	2030	4yr	SLR APPLIED	1.0M	+4.9M
Diablo Canyon	2	CA	WECC	1166	84.9%	434K	2030	4yr	STATE EXT	1.7M	—
Comanche Peak	1	TX	TRE	1711	67.4%	505K	2030	4yr	SLR APPLIED	2.0M	+10.1M
Dresden Generating Station	3	IL	RFC	967	92.7%	393K	2031	5yr	SLR APPLIED	2.0M	+7.9M
Quad Cities Generating Station	1	IL	RFC	970	84.1%	357K	2032	6yr	SLR APPLIED	2.1M	+7.1M
Quad Cities Generating Station	2	IL	RFC	972	94.3%	401K	2032	6yr	SLR APPLIED	2.4M	+8.0M
Browns Ferry	1	AL	SERC	1310	93.1%	534K	2033	7yr	STANDARD	3.7M	—
Prairie Island	1	MN	MRO	576	86.3%	218K	2033	7yr	SLR APPLIED	1.5M	+4.4M
Point Beach Nuclear Plant	2	WI	RFC	626	96.3%	264K	2033	7yr	SLR APPLIED	1.9M	+5.3M
Comanche Peak	2	TX	TRE	1240	89.7%	487K	2033	7yr	SLR APPLIED	3.4M	+9.8M
Browns Ferry	2	AL	SERC	1322	78.7%	455K	2034	8yr	STANDARD	3.6M	—
Prairie Island	2	MN	MRO	574	83.6%	210K	2034	8yr	SLR APPLIED	1.7M	+4.2M
Donald C Cook	1	MI	RFC	1122	83.5%	410K	2034	8yr	STANDARD	3.3M	—
Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Power Plant	1	MD	RFC	947	94.4%	392K	2034	8yr	SLR APPLIED	3.1M	+7.8M
Brunswick Nuclear	2	NC	SERC	983	85.9%	370K	2034	8yr	SLR APPLIED	3.0M	+7.4M
Edwin I Hatch	1	GA	SERC	921	93.6%	377K	2034	8yr	STANDARD	3.0M	—
James A Fitzpatrick	1	NY	NPCC	881	96.0%	370K	2034	8yr	STANDARD	3.0M	—
Cooper Nuclear Station	1	NE	MRO	832	95.0%	346K	2034	8yr	STANDARD	2.8M	—
Arkansas Nuclear One	1	AR	SERC	912	81.4%	325K	2034	8yr	STANDARD	2.6M	—
Millstone	2	CT	NPCC	893	96.4%	377K	2035	9yr	STANDARD	3.4M	—
Watts Bar Nuclear Plant	1	TN	SERC	1254	64.2%	353K	2035	9yr	SLR APPLIED	3.2M	+7.1M
Browns Ferry	3	AL	SERC	1309	86.1%	493K	2036	10yr	STANDARD	4.9M	—
PSEG Salem Generating Station	1	NJ	RFC	1216	81.1%	432K	2036	10yr	SLR APPLIED	4.3M	+8.6M
Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Power Plant	2	MD	RFC	923	86.1%	348K	2036	10yr	SLR APPLIED	3.5M	+7.0M
Brunswick Nuclear	1	NC	SERC	1004	94.6%	416K	2036	10yr	SLR APPLIED	4.2M	+8.3M
Beaver Valley	1	PA	RFC	973	84.1%	358K	2036	10yr	STANDARD	3.6M	—
St Lucie	1	FL	SERC	1036	84.0%	381K	2036	10yr	STANDARD	3.8M	—
Donald C Cook	2	MI	RFC	1258	85.1%	469K	2037	11yr	STANDARD	5.2M	—
Joseph M Farley	1	AL	SERC	949	86.5%	360K	2037	11yr	STANDARD	4.0M	—
Davis Besse	1	OH	RFC	942	94.4%	390K	2037	11yr	STANDARD	4.3M	—
Edwin I Hatch	2	GA	SERC	937	79.6%	327K	2038	12yr	STANDARD	3.9M	—
North Anna	1	VA	SERC	1013	82.9%	368K	2038	12yr	SLR APPLIED	4.4M	+7.4M
Arkansas Nuclear One	2	AR	SERC	1041	95.3%	435K	2038	12yr	STANDARD	5.2M	—
PSEG Salem Generating Station	2	NJ	RFC	1205	95.5%	504K	2040	14yr	SLR APPLIED	7.1M	+10.1M
Sequoyah	1	TN	SERC	1202	77.9%	410K	2040	14yr	STANDARD	5.7M	—
North Anna	2	VA	SERC	1013	86.1%	382K	2040	14yr	SLR APPLIED	5.3M	+7.6M
Joseph M Farley	2	AL	SERC	942	70.7%	292K	2041	15yr	STANDARD	4.4M	—
McGuire	1	NC	SERC	1227	88.6%	476K	2041	15yr	STANDARD	7.1M	—
Sequoyah	2	TN	SERC	1189	46.9%	244K	2041	15yr	STANDARD	3.7M	—
LaSalle Generating Station	1	IL	RFC	1220	91.4%	488K	2042	16yr	STANDARD	7.8M	—
TalenEnergy Susquehanna	1	PA	RFC	1297	91.6%	520K	2042	16yr	STANDARD	8.3M	—
V C Summer	1	SC	SERC	1049	88.3%	406K	2042	16yr	STANDARD	6.5M	—
Columbia Generating Station	2	WA	WECC	1193	74.2%	388K	2043	17yr	STANDARD	6.6M	—
LaSalle Generating Station	2	IL	RFC	1203	86.4%	455K	2043	17yr	STANDARD	7.7M	—
Catawba	1	SC	SERC	1231	95.0%	512K	2043	17yr	STANDARD	8.7M	—
Catawba	2	SC	SERC	1209	86.5%	458K	2043	17yr	STANDARD	7.8M	—
McGuire	2	NC	SERC	1219	93.5%	499K	2043	17yr	STANDARD	8.5M	—
St Lucie	2	FL	SERC	1053	95.8%	442K	2043	17yr	STANDARD	7.5M	—
Waterford 3	3	LA	SERC	1173	82.3%	423K	2044	18yr	STANDARD	7.6M	—
Byron Generating Station	1	IL	RFC	1239	95.7%	519K	2044	18yr	STANDARD	9.3M	—
Grand Gulf	1	MS	SERC	1464	89.6%	575K	2044	18yr	STANDARD	10.3M	—
TalenEnergy Susquehanna	2	PA	RFC	1322	70.5%	408K	2044	18yr	STANDARD	7.3M	—
Limerick	1	PA	RFC	1214	94.8%	504K	2044	18yr	STANDARD	9.1M	—
Callaway	1	MO	SERC	1288	63.1%	356K	2044	18yr	STANDARD	6.4M	—
Wolf Creek Generating Station	1	KS	MRO	1264	83.7%	463K	2045	19yr	STANDARD	8.8M	—
Millstone	3	CT	NPCC	1287	81.3%	458K	2045	19yr	STANDARD	8.7M	—
Fermi	2	MI	RFC	1193	95.2%	497K	2045	19yr	STANDARD	9.4M	—
Palo Verde	1	AZ	WECC	1383	84.2%	510K	2045	19yr	STANDARD	9.7M	—
River Bend	1	LA	SERC	1015	76.4%	340K	2045	19yr	STANDARD	6.5M	—
Nine Mile Point Nuclear Station	2	NY	NPCC	1332	95.1%	555K	2046	20yr	STANDARD	11.1M	—
Palo Verde	2	AZ	WECC	1383	96.3%	583K	2046	20yr	STANDARD	11.7M	—
Harris (NC)	1	NC	SERC	1032	86.6%	392K	2046	20yr	STANDARD	7.8M	—
Perry	1	OH	RFC	1317	81.0%	467K	2046	20yr	STANDARD	9.3M	—
Braidwood Generation Station	1	IL	RFC	1259	90.1%	497K	2046	20yr	STANDARD	9.9M	—
Byron Generating Station	2	IL	RFC	1209	90.0%	477K	2046	20yr	STANDARD	9.5M	—
PSEG Hope Creek Generating Station	1	NJ	RFC	1272	82.7%	461K	2046	20yr	STANDARD	9.2M	—
Vogtle	1	GA	SERC	1228	94.9%	510K	2047	21yr	STANDARD	10.7M	—
Palo Verde	3	AZ	WECC	1370	78.8%	473K	2047	21yr	STANDARD	9.9M	—
Braidwood Generation Station	2	IL	RFC	1219	95.8%	511K	2047	21yr	STANDARD	10.7M	—
Beaver Valley	2	PA	RFC	960	94.2%	396K	2047	21yr	STANDARD	8.3M	—
South Texas Project	1	TX	TRE	1384	95.2%	577K	2047	21yr	STANDARD	12.1M	—
South Texas Project	2	TX	TRE	1376	85.0%	512K	2048	22yr	STANDARD	11.3M	—
Vogtle	2	GA	SERC	1229	88.1%	474K	2049	23yr	STANDARD	10.9M	—
Limerick	2	PA	RFC	1221	87.6%	469K	2049	23yr	STANDARD	10.8M	—
Seabrook	1	NH	NPCC	1287	96.8%	546K	2050	24yr	SLR GRANTED	13.1M	—
Turkey Point	3	FL	SERC	904	91.9%	364K	2052	26yr	SLR GRANTED	9.5M	—
Surry	1	VA	SERC	899	72.5%	285K	2052	26yr	SLR GRANTED	7.4M	—
Turkey Point	4	FL	SERC	1027	76.1%	342K	2053	27yr	SLR GRANTED	9.2M	—
Peach Bottom	2	PA	RFC	1386	94.5%	573K	2053	27yr	SLR GRANTED	15.5M	—
Oconee	1	SC	SERC	918	95.9%	386K	2053	27yr	SLR GRANTED	10.4M	—
Oconee	2	SC	SERC	919	87.3%	351K	2053	27yr	SLR GRANTED	9.5M	—
Surry	2	VA	SERC	903	94.9%	376K	2053	27yr	SLR GRANTED	10.1M	—
Peach Bottom	3	PA	RFC	1391	86.0%	524K	2054	28yr	SLR GRANTED	14.7M	—
Oconee	3	SC	SERC	923	94.9%	384K	2054	28yr	SLR GRANTED	10.8M	—
Watts Bar Nuclear Plant	2	TN	SERC	1256	84.2%	463K	2055	29yr	STANDARD	13.4M	—
Vogtle	3	GA	SERC	1182	92.9%	481K	2063	37yr	NEW BUILD	17.8M	—
Vogtle	4	GA	SERC	1179	75.8%	392K	2064	38yr	NEW BUILD	14.9M	—