What US utilities actually paid for uranium · EIA-923 Schedule 2 fuel receipts · 2015–2024
EIA-923 Schedule 2 · EIA-858 · 2015–2024
$68/lb
Fleet avg delivered cost (2024)
$85.60/lb
Spot price (May 2026)
$90/lb
New contract price (2024)
-$16.89/lb
Discount to spot (fleet benefit)
~22%
% of fleet re-contracted at market
2029
Estimated full roll-off year
The contract roll-off story: cheap uranium running out. Old contracts signed between 2014 and 2020 locked in uranium at $30–50/lb. After Fukushima spot collapsed to $18–30/lb, utilities holding those long-term contracts were actually paying a premium to spot — a historically unusual situation. Now spot has surged to $85/lb and those legacy contracts are a massive competitive benefit: utilities burn cheap uranium while spot doubles beneath them.
But they expire. Every year roughly 10–15% of contracted volume rolls off. New contracts signed in 2022–2024 are priced at $75–90/lb. By 2028–2030, the fleet average delivered cost will converge toward spot — $85+/lb — adding $15–20/lb to nuclear fuel costs across the entire US fleet. Each dollar per pound of delivered cost increase across the ~39M lb/yr fleet equals ~$39M/yr in additional fuel expenditure. That is a direct operating cost increase for utilities and the clearest possible confirmation that high uranium prices are real, durable, and flowing through to end buyers. The EIA-923 Schedule 2 fuel receipt data captures this transition in real time.
Section 1 — Fleet Average Delivered Cost vs Spot Price (2015–2024)
Fleet Average Delivered Cost vs Spot Price · 2015–2024 · Source: EIA-923 Schedule 2, UxC
The green shaded band (2016–2021) shows the period when fleet average delivered cost exceeded spot price — utilities holding long-term contracts were paying above market. Since the 2022–2023 crossover, the relationship has reversed: spot now trades $15–17/lb above the fleet's blended delivered cost, reflecting the remaining old-book inventory. That gap closes as contracts roll off annually.
Duke rotating to market faster; regulatory rate recovery
Salem 1&2
PSEG / Constellation
NJ
$33/lb
$42/lb
$68/lb
+106%
NJ ZEC; partial re-contracting complete
Sequoyah 1&2
TVA
TN
$31/lb
$37/lb
$69/lb
+123%
TVA new-vintage contracts in 2022–23
Millstone 2&3
Dominion
CT
$34/lb
$44/lb
$71/lb
+109%
CT grid-critical; state support → willingness to pay
Nine Mile Point 1&2
Constellation
NY
$35/lb
$46/lb
$74/lb
+111%
NYISO merchant; higher spot exposure
Comanche Peak 1&2
Vistra
TX
$36/lb
$48/lb
$76/lb
+111%
ERCOT merchant; most spot exposure of large fleet
Diablo Canyon 1&2
PG&E
CA
$38/lb
$52/lb
$79/lb
+108%
Was retiring → forced rapid re-contracting 2022–23 at market
Vogtle 3&4
Southern / Georgia Power
GA
N/A
$68/lb
$82/lb
N/A
New plant; first contracts signed 2020–22 near market
2024 delivered cost color coding: Green (<$60/lb) = well-hedged, legacy cheap contracts still dominant.
Yellow ($60–$74/lb) = transitioning, mix of old and new vintages.
Red ($75+/lb) = near market rate, old book largely exhausted.
Plant-level figures estimated from EIA-923 Schedule 2 reported quantities and expenditures.
Estimated % of Fleet Volume Re-Contracted at Market Prices · 2020–2030 · Source: EIA-858, EIA-923, analyst estimates
The stacked bars show the composition of US utility uranium volumes by contract vintage. Green = contracts signed 2014–2020 at sub-$50/lb (legacy cheap book). Yellow = transitional vintage $50–65/lb. Red = new market-rate contracts at $65+/lb. The dashed line marks the approximate crossover (~2026) when market-rate contracts become the plurality. By 2029E virtually no sub-$50 volume remains in the fleet. Estimates derived from EIA-858 contract duration and quantity disclosures, weighted by plant fuel load.
Section 4 — What This Means: Nuclear Fuel Cost Per MWh vs Gas
Contract Regime
Delivered Cost
Fuel Cost / MWh
vs Gas @ $4/MMBtu
vs Gas @ $6/MMBtu
Old book (2019–2022) Legacy contracts, pre-2020 vintage
$30–35/lb
$1.5–1.8/MWh
Nuclear wins by $28–30/MWh
Nuclear wins by $43–45/MWh
Current blended (2024) Fleet average reflects mix of old and new vintage
~$68/lb
$3.4/MWh
Nuclear wins by ~$26/MWh
Nuclear wins by ~$41/MWh
Full market (2029+) Old book exhausted; all volume at spot-linked prices
~$85–90/lb
$4.3–4.5/MWh
Nuclear wins by ~$25/MWh
Nuclear wins by ~$40/MWh
Key takeaway: uranium cost roll-off is real but not existential for nuclear economics.
Even at full market uranium prices of $85–90/lb, the total nuclear fuel cost — uranium + conversion + enrichment + fabrication — is approximately $7–10/MWh. Gas generation at $4/MMBtu runs $30–32/MWh in fuel cost; at $6/MMBtu, $45–48/MWh. Nuclear retains a $25–40/MWh fuel cost advantage across all uranium price scenarios. The contract roll-off is a genuine operating cost headwind for utilities, adding $15–20/lb to their realized uranium cost over 2024–2030, but it does not change nuclear's fundamental competitive position against gas. The signal is important for uranium producers — prices are real and sticky — but it does not threaten fleet economics.
Conversion factor: 0.0500 lbs U₃O₈ per MWh of nuclear electricity (US fleet average). Enrichment and fabrication add ~$3–4/MWh. Total nuclear fuel cycle cost = uranium component + $3–4/MWh.
Methodology & Data Sources
EIA-923 Schedule 2 — Fuel Receipts and Expenditures: The primary data source for this report. Schedule 2 of Form EIA-923 captures every uranium fuel delivery to every licensed US nuclear plant on a monthly basis, including quantity received (in MMBtu or short tons of uranium, converted here to lbs U₃O₈) and total expenditure. Dividing expenditure by quantity yields the actual delivered cost per pound — the utility's realized price including transport, insurance, and any surcharges specified in the purchase contract. Published monthly with a ~3-month lag; annual summary available in the EIA Electric Power Annual. The EIA converts nuclear fuel costs to $/MMBtu for the original filing; this report converts back to $/lb U₃O₈ using 148,000,000 BTU per short ton of U₃O₈ (EIA standard conversion factor).
EIA-858 — Uranium Marketing Annual Report: Used for fleet-level aggregate validation and contract structure data. EIA-858 collects uranium purchase contract terms from all US utilities annually, including volumes under contract, price terms (fixed vs market-related), and delivery dates. This data supports the contract roll-off projection in Section 3. EIA-858 is published annually, typically in the spring for the prior-year data.
Spot price: UxC weekly spot price survey. Spot prices in the data table represent the UxC weekly average for the final week of each calendar year. Current spot price of $85.60/lb is as of May 2026.
New contract price: Estimated from published long-term contract benchmarks (UxC, TradeTech term price indicators) and utility disclosures in 10-K filings and earnings calls. New contract price represents typical terms for multi-year utility contracts signed in the given year; actual terms vary by volume, duration, and counterparty creditworthiness.
Plant-level delivered cost estimates: EIA-923 Schedule 2 fuel cost data is reported at the plant level but EIA suppresses individual plant data when fewer than three suppliers serve a plant (confidentiality rule). Published plant-level figures in this report are estimated from available EIA-923 aggregate data, EIA-858 contract disclosures, utility regulatory filings, and known fleet procurement practices. They are representative of the contractual situation at each plant, not verbatim EIA figures.
Fuel cost per MWh methodology: Uranium component only: delivered cost ($/lb) × 0.0500 lbs/MWh = uranium fuel cost ($/MWh). Total nuclear fuel cycle cost adds conversion (~$0.50/MWh), enrichment (~$2.00/MWh), and fabrication (~$1.00–1.50/MWh) for a typical total of $7–10/MWh at current uranium prices. Gas generation fuel cost calculated at heat rate of 7,500 BTU/kWh (efficient CCGT) × gas price ($/MMBtu) = $/MWh.