⚠️ US Utility Uranium Contract Gap Model

Uncovered procurement requirements 2025–2034 · Three scenarios · Russian ban overlay · Forced-buying window · Updated 2026-05-21 09:46 UTC
The core trade mechanism in one paragraph: US utilities consume 40M lbs/yr of uranium. They buy under long-term contracts (avg 5–7 yr tenor) plus spot. As existing contracts expire faster than new ones are signed, the uncovered requirement — uranium that must still be contracted — grows every year. Utilities cannot run out of fuel: they must buy. When forward coverage drops below ~85%, procurement managers panic-buy in the spot market and sign whatever LT contracts are available. The Russian ban (Public Law 118-67) removes 6M lbs/yr of committed Russian supply when waivers expire Dec 31 2027. Utilities know this — and are racing to find alternatives. This forced-buying window is the price catalyst.
126.4M lbs
2024 utility inventory (P)
~38 mos
Inventory buffer
$86.20/lb
UxC LT indicator (2024 avg)
89%
2027 coverage (base)
81%
2027 coverage (bull)
6M/yr
Russian ban — lbs at risk
Dec 31 2027
Waiver expiry
2028
Base forced-buy trigger
2027
Bull forced-buy trigger

📊 Supply Coverage Waterfall — Base Scenario

US Fleet Consumption vs Committed Supply (Base Scenario) 10M 20M 30M 40M 50M 2025 2026 -4.3M 2027 -10.9M 2028 -20.1M 2029 -27.7M 2030 Committed LT Spot/ST Consumption
Forward Coverage Ratio by Scenario 70% 80% 85% 90% 100% 85% forced-buy Bear Base Bull 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Yellow line = consumption. Blue bars = committed LT supply. Cyan = spot/ST. Red labels = uncovered gap. Right chart: when any line crosses the 85% red dashed line, utilities enter forced-buying mode.

📋 Annual Gap Detail

Model assumptions: Committed supply from EIA-858 Table 5 (2024 UMAR, fleet aggregate). Consumption baseline: EIA-923 FY2025 actual (40M lbs) + 0.4%/yr growth. LT roll-off: observed from Table 5 forward contract schedule. Russian ban: Public Law 118-67; DOE waivers expire Dec 31 2027 (~6M lbs/yr affected). Bear = 8M lbs/yr new LT signed; Base = 4.5M lbs/yr; Bull = 2M lbs/yr. Inventory draw capped at 8/5/3 M lbs/yr per scenario. 85% coverage threshold from industry practice (UxC). This is a model, not a forecast. Actual utility contracting data is confidential (individual utility data withheld 'W' in EIA-858). Not investment advice.