⚠ Status notice (as of May 2026):TMI-1 (Crane Clean Energy Center) — NRC restart license was approved; publicly announced commercial target was September 2025. Verify current operating status via NRC docket or Constellation press releases.
Palisades — NRC Draft Safety Evaluation Report (DSER) issued 2024 with open items outstanding; commercial restart timeline has shifted from original 2025 target toward 2027–2028. Monitor NRC docket no. 05000255.
Braidwood 1&2 — SLR decision is the highest-urgency item: Unit 1 license expired 2026, operating under timely renewal rule. NRC must issue SLR decision before ongoing operations can be confirmed beyond 2026.
~97.5 GWe
Current fleet capacity (incl. TMI-1 restart)
4,200 MWe
At risk next 10 yr (no SLR)
31,500 MWe
SLR pipeline approved + pending
2,234 MWe
Confirmed new builds
800 MWe
Palisades restart (NRC pending)
~835 MWe
TMI-1 (Crane) — NRC approved · ~2025 target
The NRC license pipeline is the demand variable most ignored by the market: Uranium demand models treat the US fleet as static. In reality, every SLR approval adds 20 years of demand for that unit — typically 500,000–1,200,000 lbs/yr each. The SLR pipeline currently covers ~31.5 GWe of capacity. If approved, these units generate electricity — and consume uranium — through 2053–2075. If denied, that MW drops off and demand declines. There is no equivalent $2 trillion replacement for this fleet on any realistic 20-year timeline.
NRC License Status by Category
Unit(s)
Operator
State
MWe
License Category
Expiry / Status
U₃O₈ Demand Impact
Turkey Point 3&4
NextEra / FPL
FL
1,744
SLR Approved
2052 / 2053 · 80-yr licenses granted 2019 — first SLR in US history
Secured ~32 yrs of demand · ~870K lbs/yr locked in to 2053
Peach Bottom 2&3
Constellation / Exelon
PA
2,786
SLR Approved
2053 / 2054 · SLR granted 2020
~1.4M lbs/yr secured to 2054
Surry 1&2
Dominion Energy
VA
1,676
SLR Approved
2052 / 2053 · SLR granted 2021
~840K lbs/yr secured to 2053
North Anna 1&2
Dominion Energy
VA
1,892
SLR Approved
2058 / 2060 · SLR granted 2021
~946K lbs/yr secured to 2060
Seabrook
NextEra / FPL
NH
1,295
SLR Approved
2050 · SLR granted 2021
~648K lbs/yr secured to 2050; 47% of NH electricity
Canadian CANDU Fleet — Refurbishment & Life Extension Pipeline
Why Canada belongs in this analysis: Ontario's CANDU fleet (~10 GWe operating) runs on natural uranium — no enrichment required. Per-MWh U₃O₈ procurement is ~0.048 lbs/MWh, comparable to the US LWR fleet. The Darlington and Bruce refurbishment programs are the largest life-extension programs in North American nuclear history, collectively securing ~4M lbs/yr of uranium demand through 2055–2064. Unlike US SLR (which faces NRC regulatory uncertainty), Canadian refurbishments are CNSC-approved construction-phase programs already underway — the demand extension is locked in. All data sourced from CNSC license records (nuclearsafety.gc.ca), OPG public filings, Bruce Power press releases, and NB Power annual reports.
Station
Operator
Prov.
MWe
Status
Program / Timeline
U₃O₈ Demand Impact
Darlington 1–4
OPG
ON
3,512
Refurb Active
CNSC-approved refurbishment. Unit 2 complete (~2023, back online). Unit 3 underway 2024–2028. Units 4 & 1 follow ~2028–2035. 30-yr license extension to ~2055. $12.8B OPG program.
~1.33M lbs/yr secured through ~2055 · demand locked in at construction phase
Bruce A (1–4)
Bruce Power
ON
3,076
MCR Underway
Major Component Replacement. Units 3 & 4 complete (back online 2020 / 2022). Units 1 & 2 MCR planned. Long-Term Operations (LTO) agreement with OPG to 2064. CNSC-approved.
~1.16M lbs/yr to 2064 · LTO signed
Bruce B (5–8)
Bruce Power
ON
3,076
Operating
MCR follows A-unit sequence (~2030s). LTO agreement to 2064 covers all 8 Bruce units. No retirement risk on current planning horizon.
~1.16M lbs/yr to 2064
Pickering B (5–8)
OPG
ON
2,064
Verify Status
Original 2025 retirement; Ontario extended operation. Extended to ~end 2026. Verify current operating status — possible further short-term extension under Ontario government review.
~781K lbs/yr while operating · retirement removes ~4M lbs over 5-yr tail
Point Lepreau
NB Power
NB
705
Operating
CANDU-6. Refurbishment completed 2012 (4-yr project). CNSC operating license renewed to ~2044. Only nuclear unit in Atlantic Canada.
~267K lbs/yr secured to ~2044
Gentilly-2
Hydro-Québec
QC
635
Retired
Permanently shut Dec 2012. Refurbishment cancelled for economic reasons. No restart plans. In decommissioning.
CANDU reactors use natural uranium (no enrichment). Uranium intensity ~0.048 lbs U₃O₈/MWh on procurement basis — comparable to US LWR fleet because CANDU has zero enrichment tails loss, offsetting higher fuel-cycle throughput. Source: WNA, CNSC, OPG disclosures.
Pickering B demand excluded pending status verification. Gentilly-2 excluded (retired 2012).
US Data Sources: License expiry dates and SLR application status from NRC ADAMS (Agencywide Documents Access and Management System) — publicly searchable at nrc.gov/reading-rm/adams.html. Reactor capacity (net MWe) from EIA-860 Annual Electric Generator Report. New build status from NRC Combined License (COL) docket and DOE press releases. Restart applications tracked via NRC docket numbers. MWe figures are net electrical capacity. Uranium demand at 0.0500 lbs U₃O₈/MWh net generation at 92.4% CF.
Canadian Data Sources: License terms from Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) public registry (nuclearsafety.gc.ca). Darlington refurbishment program data from OPG public filings and Ontario Energy Board proceedings. Bruce Power Major Component Replacement (MCR) and Long-Term Operations (LTO) agreement from Bruce Power press releases and CNSC Environmental Assessment documents. Pickering operational status from OPG announcements and Ontario Ministry of Energy orders. Point Lepreau license from CNSC. CANDU uranium intensity (~0.048 lbs U₃O₈/MWh) derived from published burnup data (~7,500 MWd/tU thermal) and 30% thermal efficiency; natural uranium feed with no enrichment tails loss.
SLR process: A Subsequent License Renewal adds another 20 years beyond the first renewal, extending from 60 to 80 years. The NRC must find that the applicant has adequately managed the aging effects of extended operation. No SLR has been denied to date — all applications have been either approved or are under review. The "timely renewal rule" allows a unit to continue operating after license expiry if an SLR application was filed in good faith.