Nuclear ZEC State Policy Tracker

States with Active ZEC Programs

Reactors Receiving ZECs

18.3 GW

ZEC-Supported Capacity (18% of US fleet)

~$1.1B

Est. Annual ZEC Value (fleet-wide)

Key insight: State ZEC programs have prevented the premature retirement of ~18 GW of zero-carbon baseload — roughly the equivalent of 18 gas peakers running at 100% capacity factor. Constellation is the primary beneficiary, receiving ZEC payments across all four states. The New York program cliff (April 2029) is the most immediate policy risk: four upstate plants totaling 3.35 GW will need renewal or face economic stress. Illinois ZECs are market-sensitive — payments shrink when PJM/MISO power prices rise above the Social Cost of Carbon threshold, providing limited downside protection but strong incentive alignment. Connecticut's Millstone holds the highest ZEC rate ($17.54/MWh) secured via competitive procurement.

📋 Active State ZEC Programs

New York — NYSERDA Tier 1 ZEC

Enacted Aug 2016 · Administered by NYSERDA · Quarterly price adjustment

⚠ Expires Apr 2029

~$8.40/MWh

Current ZEC Price (Q1 2026 est.)

~$225M

Est. Annual ZEC Value

~27 TWh

Annual Generation Covered

Price formula: Social Cost of Carbon ($42/ton CO₂) minus Reference Bus Locational Based Marginal Price (LBMP). Quarterly NYSERDA recalculation. Minimum ZEC = $0 (cannot go negative). Policy risk: Renewal legislation will be needed by late 2027 to avoid a 2029 cliff; NYSERDA has signaled support for extension. Constellation has publicly cited ZEC economics in its NY investment decisions.

Illinois — FEJA / CEJA ZEC Program

FEJA enacted Dec 2016 · CEJA extension Sep 2021 · Illinois Commerce Commission

✓ Extended to 2045

~$4.20/MWh

Current ZEC Price (market-adjusted est.)

~$330M

Est. Annual ZEC Value

~78 TWh

Annual Generation Covered

Price formula: Capped at $16.50/MWh (Social Cost of Carbon). Actual price = cap minus net electricity revenue per MWh. When PJM/MISO prices are high, ZEC payments drop toward zero — acting as a profitability floor, not a guaranteed subsidy. CEJA 2021 created a carbon-free energy standard backstop through 2045, ensuring the plants remain eligible for long-term support even if ZEC formula payments are low.

New Jersey — NJBPU ZEC Program

Enacted May 2018 · NJ Board of Public Utilities · 3-year renewable periods

✓ Active (3rd period through ~2027)

$10.00/MWh

ZEC Price (fixed per period)

~$250M

Est. Annual ZEC Value

~25 TWh

Annual Generation Covered

Price formula: Fixed at $10.00/MWh for each 3-year period, regardless of market conditions — simpler and more predictable than NY or IL formulas. NJBPU must approve each renewal period based on a nuclear plant viability determination. Salem 1 & 2 are jointly owned by PSEG (~57%) and Constellation (~43%). All three plants are in PJM's RFC region.

Connecticut — CT DEEP Millstone Contract

DEEP competitive solicitation 2018 · Bilateral contract with Eversource & United Illuminating

✓ Active through ~2030

$17.54/MWh

ZEC Price (contract rate)

~$298M

Est. Annual ZEC Value

~17 TWh

Annual Generation Covered

Price formula: Fixed contract rate ($17.54/MWh blended) via bilateral power purchase agreements with Eversource and United Illuminating — not a ZEC in the traditional sense but functionally equivalent. Highest $/MWh rate in the country, reflecting CT's grid isolation and Dominion's negotiating position. Dominion threatened closure in 2017 without a contract; CT legislature authorized the procurement.

🏭 Plant-Level ZEC Coverage

Plant	State	GW	Operator	ZEC $/MWh	Est. $/yr	Expires
Millstone 2 & 3	CT	2.11	Dominion	$17.54	~$298M	2030
Hope Creek	NJ	1.17	PSEG	$10.00	~$92M	~2027
Salem 1 & 2	NJ	2.30	PSEG / Constellation	$10.00	~$158M	~2027
Nine Mile Point 1 & 2	NY	1.92	Constellation	~$8.40	~$132M	Apr 2029
James A. FitzPatrick	NY	0.85	Constellation	~$8.40	~$58M	Apr 2029
R.E. Ginna	NY	0.58	Constellation	~$8.40	~$35M	Apr 2029
Braidwood 1 & 2	IL	2.33	Constellation	~$4.20	~$79M	2045 (CEJA)
Byron 1 & 2	IL	2.30	Constellation	~$4.20	~$78M	2045 (CEJA)
Dresden 2 & 3	IL	1.79	Constellation	~$4.20	~$60M	2045 (CEJA)
Quad Cities 1 & 2	IL	1.82	Constellation	~$4.20	~$62M	2045 (CEJA)
Clinton	IL	1.07	Constellation	~$4.20	~$36M	2045 (CEJA)
TOTAL		18.3 GW		—	~$1.09B

💰 ZEC Rate Comparison ($/MWh)

🗓 Policy Expiry Timeline

State	Program	Expires	Renewal Risk
NY	NYSERDA Tier 1 ZEC	Apr 2029	Medium
IL	FEJA / CEJA backstop	2045	Low
NJ	NJBPU ZEC (3-yr periods)	~2027 → renewal	Low
CT	DEEP Millstone Contract	~2030	Low

🔭 States Considering ZECs

Pennsylvania — Multiple ZEC bills introduced (HB 1048, SB 832). ~9 GW at risk. As of 2026 no program enacted; Constellation's Susquehanna units are the primary intended beneficiary.

Ohio — HB6 (2019) nuclear subsidy scandal; law effectively rescinded. FirstEnergy Solutions (now Energy Harbor/Vistra) Davis-Besse and Perry plants operate without state support.

Michigan — Palisades restart ($1.52B DOE loan guarantee); federal support, not state ZEC. Holtec pursuing NRC restart license.

🔬 Methodology & Caveats

ZEC prices: NY price is estimated based on NYSERDA's quarterly formula (Social Cost of Carbon at $42/ton CO₂ minus Reference Bus LBMP); actual quarterly values available from NYSERDA website. IL price reflects 2024–2025 market conditions with elevated power prices suppressing ZEC payments below the $16.50/MWh cap.

Annual values: Estimated using published nameplate capacity × 92% fleet capacity factor × stated ZEC $/MWh. Actual payments vary by unit CF and quarterly price adjustments. IL actual ZEC payments in high-price years may approach $0.

Sources: NYSERDA ZEC program filings; Illinois Commerce Commission FEJA/CEJA proceedings; NJ BPU ZEC orders (2018, 2021, 2024); CT DEEP Millstone procurement order (2018); EIA-860 nameplate capacities; WNA reactor status.

Scope: State ZEC programs only. Does not include federal Production Tax Credits (§45J), DOE Civil Nuclear Credit program ($6B through 2026), or utility-level power purchase agreements.