Japan Uranium Demand Recovery — Million lbs U3O8/yr
Japan consumed ~20M lbs U3O8/yr pre-Fukushima (54 reactors, ~46 GWe). 22 units have been or will be decommissioned.
The remaining 27-unit fleet can recover to ~8.77M lbs/yr if all restart — still only 44% of 2010 peak demand.
Every licensed restart is incremental demand with no new mine supply required.
| Reactor | Utility | Type | GWe Net | Status | U3O8 Demand/yr | Notes |
|---|
Demand calculated at 70% capacity factor (Japan fleet average), 175 tU/GWe-yr, 2,599 lbs U3O8/tU. Source: IAEA PRIS Q1 2026, NRA Japan licensing database.
| Reactor | Utility | GWe Net | Restart Date | U3O8/yr | Notes |
|---|
15 reactors operating. Total: 14.61 GWe, 4.65M lbs U3O8/yr at 70% CF. Kashiwazaki-Kariwa 6 (TEPCO, 1.356 GWe) restarted Apr 2026 — first TEPCO restart post-Fukushima and the most significant demand addition since late 2024.
| Reactor | Utility | GWe Net | NRA Approval | U3O8/yr | Blocker |
|---|
Two reactors with full NRA approval remaining. KK-6 moved to operating (Apr 2026). KK-7 remains the next catalyst: same site as KK-6, Niigata consent now more likely given KK-6 precedent. KK-7 + Tokai 2 combined = 0.78M lbs/yr incremental demand if both restart.
| Reactor | Utility | GWe Net | Review Stage | U3O8/yr | Expected NRA Decision |
|---|
NRA new regulatory standard reviews take 3-8 years typically. Tomari 3 and Higashidori 1 are most advanced. Shika 2 was damaged in the January 2024 Noto earthquake, delaying its review by 2-3 years. Hamaoka faces the most complex seismic/tsunami risk assessment.
| Reactor | Utility | GWe Net | Status | U3O8/yr | Path to Restart |
|---|
Shimane 3 completed construction in 2023 and is in pre-application NRA consultation — a new build that never operated. Higashidori 2 has no active review; earliest possible restart 2029+.