Japan Uranium Demand Recovery — Million lbs U3O8/yr
Japan consumed ~20M lbs U3O8/yr pre-Fukushima (54 reactors, ~46 GWe). 22 units have been or will be decommissioned.
The remaining 27-unit fleet can recover to ~8.77M lbs/yr if all restart — still only 44% of 2010 peak demand.
Every licensed restart is incremental demand with no new mine supply required.
| Reactor | Utility | Type | GWe Net | Status | U3O8 Demand/yr | Notes |
|---|
Demand calculated at 70% capacity factor (Japan fleet average), 175 tU/GWe-yr, 2,599 lbs U3O8/tU. Source: IAEA PRIS Q1 2026, NRA Japan licensing database.
| Reactor | Utility | GWe Net | Restart Date | U3O8/yr | Notes |
|---|
14 reactors operating. Total: 13.25 GWe, 4.22M lbs U3O8/yr at 70% CF. Two reactors (Onagawa 2, Shimane 2) restarted in late 2024 — first new demand additions in 18+ months.
| Reactor | Utility | GWe Net | NRA Approval | U3O8/yr | Blocker |
|---|
Three reactors with full NRA approval — the regulatory hurdle is cleared. The remaining blocker is local government consent (Niigata, Ibaraki prefectures) and TEPCO management credibility post-Fukushima. Kashiwazaki-Kariwa 6&7 are the biggest demand catalyst: 1.05M lbs/yr combined if both restart.
| Reactor | Utility | GWe Net | Review Stage | U3O8/yr | Expected NRA Decision |
|---|
NRA new regulatory standard reviews take 3-8 years typically. Tomari 3 and Higashidori 1 are most advanced. Shika 2 was damaged in the January 2024 Noto earthquake, delaying its review by 2-3 years. Hamaoka faces the most complex seismic/tsunami risk assessment.
| Reactor | Utility | GWe Net | Status | U3O8/yr | Path to Restart |
|---|
Shimane 3 completed construction in 2023 and is in pre-application NRA consultation — a new build that never operated. Higashidori 2 has no active review; earliest possible restart 2029+.
Base Case — 2027
KK-6 restarts, Tokai 2 remains blocked. Licensed tier: 1 of 3.
New demand added+0.52M lbs/yr
Total Japan demand4.74M lbs/yr
Japan demand / peak24%
Price impactModest — already priced
Bull Case — 2028
All 3 licensed restart. Tomari 3 + Higashidori 1 clear NRA.
New demand added+2.5M lbs/yr
Total Japan demand6.7M lbs/yr
Japan demand / peak34%
Price impactSignificant — forces new contracting
Max Restart — 2030+
All 27 operable units running. Full NRA review fleet restarted.
New demand added+4.5M lbs/yr
Total Japan demand8.77M lbs/yr
Japan demand / peak44%
Price impactMajor — equivalent to 2 new Camecos
Japan Uranium Demand Recovery Trajectory (M lbs U3O8/yr)
Scenarios assume sequential restart of licensed, then NRA-approved units. Pre-Fukushima peak (~20M lbs/yr) reflects 54-reactor fleet at ~82% CF. Base/Bull/Max scenarios are analyst estimates; actual timing depends on local consent, regulatory process, and utility capex decisions. Source: IAEA PRIS Q1 2026, NRA Japan, WNA.