Why this matters: Each refueling outage represents a discrete, plant-specific uranium purchase event — typically 760K–1.1M lbs U3O8 per reload. Utilities procure fuel 12–36 months ahead of outage dates. The 2026–2027 outage calendar therefore defines active procurement windows open right now. Plants with less than 12 months of inventory on hand face the most urgent contracting pressure. EIA-923 Schedule 4 reports fuel stocks per plant; Schedule 3 monthly generation is used to detect outage timing from generation drops.
24-Month Forward Outage Calendar · May 2026 – Apr 2028
US Fleet Annual Reload Demand (outage-derived, lbs U3O8)
Data Sources & Methodology
EIA-923 Schedule 3 (Monthly Generation by Plant): Monthly net generation (MWh) per unit. A sustained generation drop >85% below rated output for 15+ days signals a refueling outage. Applying the standard 0.050 lbs U3O8/MWh conversion factor derives implied reload quantity.
EIA-923 Schedule 4 (Fuel Stocks End of Period): Reports assemblies on hand and estimated lbs U3O8 equivalent per plant at each period end. Months of coverage calculated as: stock ÷ (annual consumption ÷ 12). Plants below 12 months coverage face active procurement pressure.
NRC Daily Power Reactor Status Report: Published each business day at nrc.gov. Reports net capacity factor (%) per operating unit. Used to confirm generation-derived outage detections and identify unplanned outages in real time.
IAEA PRIS: International Atomic Energy Agency Power Reactor Information System. Provides historical energy availability factor, planned outage dates, and fuel cycle length per unit — used to cross-validate EIA-derived outage windows.
Reload quantities are estimates based on reactor type, rated capacity, and published fuel cycle lengths. Actual quantities reported with 90-day lag in EIA-923 Schedule 2. PWR standard reload: 1/3 core = approximately 40–65 fresh assemblies per cycle.
uranium-edge · EIA-923 · NRC Daily Status · IAEA PRIS · Updated 2026-05-22 · All quantities in lbs U3O8