CCJ Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Cameco Corporation · TSX/NYSE: CCJ · Reports July 30, 2026 (before market open)
Model Spot: US$93.26/lb(CCJ Dec 31, 2025 ref.) · Updated: May 21, 2026
Source: CCJ 2025 Annual Report, Official Price Sensitivity Table (Dec 31 2025) · All figures C$ unless noted
Earnings Date
July 30, 2026
70 days away
Consensus EPS
C$0.61
5 analysts (MarketBeat, conv.)
Our Base Estimate
C$0.65
+6.6% vs consensus
Realized Price (Base)
C$93.29/lb
LT contract-capped · CAD/lb
Base Adj EBITDA
C$468M
YoY: -9.0%
Q2 Sales (Base)
7.5M lbs
≈25% of FY guidance mid
2026 Guidance
29–32M lbs
WW: C$515–598M EBITDA

Investment Thesis & Key Dynamics

🎯 Q2 2026 Bull Case

  • Realized price cap is a feature near-term: LT contracts provide floor at ~C$91-95/lb even if spot retreats. Cameco locks in margin.
  • Westinghouse Q2 strength: Q2 is peak outage season — outage work typically drives higher nuclear services revenue than Q1. Strong backlog supports upside.
  • Volume leverage matters more than spot: Each +1M lb delivered adds ~C$53M to gross profit at current realized prices.
  • H1 delivery front-loading: Coverage ratios falling — utilities may accelerate H1 2026 deliveries to rebuild inventories before refueling season.

⚠️ Key Risks / Bear Case

  • Spot price softness removes LT re-contracting urgency: If spot stays at US$85-90, utilities delay signing new LT until forced. Committed book rolls off without replacement — realized price gap widens 2029+.
  • Production costs creeping up: FY2025 unit cost ~C$38-40/lb guided. McArthur River/Cigar Lake sustaining capex pressure.
  • WW outage timing risk: If spring outage season is lighter than expected, WW nuclear services revenue could miss — pulling Q2 EBITDA below base case.
  • Kazakhstan risk: KAP waiver / infrastructure constraints — Cameco JV exposure at Inkai (17% share, ~4M lbs/yr guidance).

Q2 2026E P&L — Bear / Base / Bull vs Q2 2025 Actual

Line ItemQ2 2025 ActualQ1 2026 ActualBear (6.5M lbs)Base (7.5M lbs)Bull (9.0M lbs)
Uranium Sales8.7M lbs7.8M lbs6.5M lbs7.5M lbs9.0M lbs
Realized PriceC$81.03/lbC$91.26/lbC$93.29/lbC$93.29/lbC$93.29/lb
Uranium RevenueC$705MC$712MC$606MC$699MC$840M
Fuel Services Rev.C$162MC$134MC$96MC$96MC$96M
Total RevenueC$877MC$846MC$703MC$797MC$936M
Uranium Gross ProfitC$217M—C$348MC$403MC$482M
WW EBITDA (CCJ 49%)C$352MC$122MC$56MC$61MC$70M
Corp G&AC$58M—C$49MC$49MC$49M
Adj. EBITDAC$673MC$608MC$408MC$468MC$557M
Adj. EBITDA YoY——-9.0%—
D&AC$86M—C$97MC$97MC$97M
EBIT——C$311MC$370MC$460M
InterestC$27M—C$39MC$39MC$39M
TaxC$71M—C$63MC$77MC$97M
Net EarningsC$321MC$235MC$210MC$256MC$323M
Net Earnings YoY——-12.6%—
Diluted EPS (C$)C$0.74—C$0.53C$0.65C$0.82
vs Consensus C$0.61—−13.1%+6.6%+34.4%
WW = Westinghouse Electric. Realized price from CCJ official sensitivity table Dec 31 2025. Model spot US$93.26/lb (CCJ Dec 31, 2025 ref.) → realized C$93.29/lb in 2026. All figures C$. USD/CAD: 0.718. Tax rate 23%. Diluted shares 394M.

Adj. EBITDA Bridge: Q2 2025 → Q2 2026E (Base)

Adj. EBITDA Bridge: Q2 2025 → Q2 2026E (Base) C$M514-17+38-77+8-0468Q22025ActualVolumeRealizedPriceWestinghouseFuelServicesG&A/OtherQ22026E(Base)

EPS Sensitivity vs Uranium Spot

C$0.56C$0.70cons C$0.61model US$93C$0.65$60$70$80$90$100$120Uranium Spot (USD/lb)CCJ Q2 2026E EPS (C$) vs Spot Price (US$/lb) — Base 7.5M lbs

Full Year 2026 Scenario Projections

ScenarioSpotRealizedRevenueEBITDAMarginNetEPSFCF
Bear (29M lbs)US$93.26C$93.29/lbC$3,092MC$1,778M57.5%C$951MC$2.41C$1,173M
Base (30.5M lbs)US$93.26C$93.29/lbC$3,231MC$1,874M58.0%C$1,025MC$2.60C$1,270M
Bull (32M lbs)US$93.26C$93.29/lbC$3,372MC$1,972M58.5%C$1,100MC$2.80C$1,367M
Full year; WW guide mid used. FCF after capex (C$487M) and interest. Revenue/EBITDA/EPS in CAD; spot in USD/lb.

Q2 2026E Spot Price Sensitivity (7.5M lbs delivered) — Earnings in C$Δ vs model

Spot (US$/lb)Realized (C$/lb)Adj EBITDA (C$)Net Earnings (C$)EPS (C$)vs Cons C$0.61
US$60.00C$80.78/lbC$373MC$184MC$0.46−24.6%
US$65.00C$83.22/lbC$393MC$198MC$0.50−18.0%
US$70.00C$85.65/lbC$411MC$212MC$0.54−11.5%
US$75.00C$88.09/lbC$429MC$226MC$0.57−6.6%
US$80.00C$90.53/lbC$447MC$239MC$0.610.0%
US$85.60C$91.71/lbC$456MC$246MC$0.62+1.6%
US$90.00C$92.62/lbC$462MC$252MC$0.64+4.9%
US$95.00C$93.66/lbC$471MC$258MC$0.65+6.6%
US$100.00C$94.71/lbC$478MC$263MC$0.67+9.8%
US$110.00C$95.40/lbC$483MC$267MC$0.68+11.5%
US$120.00C$96.10/lbC$489MC$272MC$0.69+13.1%

Contract Book Mechanics — Why Spot ≠ CCJ Earnings Near-Term

📋 Realized Price vs Spot (2026)

  • At US$85.60 spot → ~C$91.71 realized (CCJ sensitivity table)
  • The ~C$28 "discount" reflects existing LT contracts locked at lower prices
  • As of Dec 31 2025: 2026-2028 sales above LT average of 28M lbs/yr
  • 2029-2030: book rolls off; at US$85 spot → C$103-105/lb realized
  • Bull case for CCJ stock is the 2028-2030 re-contracting cycle at market prices

📊 Model Assumptions

  • Q2 seasonality: Q2 = ~25% of FY sales — outage season drives utility demand
  • Westinghouse Q2: Guided C$557M FY (100%); Q2 est. ~C$153M (peak outage season)
  • Fuel Services: Guided C$385M FY → C$96M/qtr
  • Unit cost: C$39.70/lb (FY2026 guidance)
  • G&A: C$49M/qtr (C$195M annual guided), D&A: C$97M/qtr
  • Consensus EPS: C$0.61 diluted (MarketBeat USD $0.44 converted at 0.718)