CCJ Q1 2026 Lookback — Our Estimate vs Actual

Cameco Corporation · TSX: CCO / NYSE: CCJ · Reported May 5, 2026 · Post-earnings accuracy report · Pre-earnings model vs actual results
Spot (current): ~US$55/lb (Q1 2026 actual: US$85.60/lb) · Updated: May 24, 2026
Source: CCJ Q1 2026 News Release (May 5, 2026) · Figures in USD · Q1 2026 avg USD/CAD ~0.726 · CCJ reports natively in C$
Earnings Date
May 5, 2026
Q1 ended March 31, 2026
Consensus EPS (adj.)
US$0.36
C$0.49 · MarketBeat, 5 analysts
Our Base EPS Estimate
US$0.41
C$0.56 · +14.3% vs consensus
Actual Adj EPS
US$0.34
Below our US$0.41 base by 17%
Actual IFRS EPS
US$0.22
Net earnings US$95M
Actual Adj EBITDA
US$369M
vs model US$307M (+20.3%)
Uranium Sales (actual)
7.8M lbs
≈ 25% of FY guidance mid
2026 Guidance
Maintained
29–32M lbs U · US$404M WW EBITDA

Consolidated Financial Results & Selected Segment Highlights — Q1 2026 (As Reported)

Consolidated financial results
THREE MONTHS ENDED MARCH 31
(C$ MILLIONS EXCEPT WHERE INDICATED) 2026 2025 CHANGE
Revenue 8457897%
Gross profit 30227012%
Net earnings attributable to equity holders 1317087%
$ per common share (basic) 0.300.1688%
$ per common share (diluted) 0.300.1688%
Adjusted net earnings (ANE) (non-IFRS) 20370>100%
$ per common share (adjusted and diluted) 0.470.16>100%
Adjusted EBITDA (non-IFRS) 50935344%
Cash provided by (used in) operations (22)110>(100)%
The financial information presented for the three months ended March 31, 2025, and March 31, 2026, is unaudited.
Selected segment highlights
THREE MONTHS ENDED MARCH 31
(C$ MILLIONS EXCEPT WHERE INDICATED) 2026 2025 CHANGE
Uranium
Production volume (million lb) 6.26.03%
Sales volume (million lb) 7.86.913%
Average realized price1 (US$/lb) 66.2162.556%
($/lb) 91.2689.122%
Revenue 71261915%
Gross profit 25920328%
Earnings before income taxes 35822758%
Adjusted EBITDA2 42328648%
Fuel services
Production volume (million kgU) 3.33.9(15)%
Sales volume (million kgU) 2.82.417%
Average realized price3 ($/kgU) 48.5356.64(14)%
Revenue 134135(1)%
Earnings before income taxes 4468(35)%
Adjusted EBITDA2 5475(28)%
Adjusted EBITDA margin (%)2 4056(29)%
Westinghouse (our share)
Adjusted free cash flow2 724947%
Net loss (46)(62)(26)%
Adjusted EBITDA2 1229233%
1 Uranium average realized price is calculated as the revenue from sales of uranium concentrate, transportation and storage fees divided by the volume of uranium concentrates sold.
2 Non-IFRS measure. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow are non-IFRS measures. See CCJ Q1 2026 MD&A for reconciliation.
3 Fuel services average realized price is calculated as revenue from the sale of conversion and fabrication services, including fuel bundles and reactor components, transportation and storage fees divided by the volumes sold.
Uranium — Produced & Purchased Costs
THREE MONTHS ENDED MARCH 31
(C$/LB · as reported) 2026 2025 CHANGE
Produced
Cash cost 23.0222.393%
Non-cash cost 11.0310.307%
Total production cost1 34.0532.694%
Quantity produced (million lb)1 6.26.03%
Purchased
Cash cost1 110.42106.144%
Quantity purchased (million lb)1 0.21.2(83)%
Totals
Produced and purchased costs 36.4444.93(19)%
Quantities produced and purchased (million lb) 6.47.2(11)%
1 Due to equity accounting, our share of production from JV Inkai is shown as a purchase at the time of delivery. These purchases will fluctuate during the quarters and timing of purchases will not match production. There were no purchases from JV Inkai during the first quarter of either 2026 or 2025.

📊 Model vs Actual — Q1 2026 Results (Reported May 5, 2026)

B−
EPS overshot — Adj EBITDA undershot. Uranium segment near-perfect; blind spots in Fuel Services and EPS mechanics.
Uranium realized price (US$66.21/lb) and volume (7.8M lbs) were accurately modeled. However, our adj EPS estimate of US$0.41 overshot actual US$0.34 by 19% — largely because WW's equity-accounting treatment (net loss of −US$33M despite US$89M adj EBITDA) suppresses reported EPS. Meanwhile, Adj EBITDA of US$369M beat our US$307M model by +20% driven by WW's strong outage-season performance (US$89M vs US$41M modeled). The EPS/EBITDA divergence reflects WW D&A from acquisition-related inventory purchase accounting — a structural mechanic to build into the Q2 model.
Our Base EPS
US$0.41
pre-earnings est · C$0.56
Actual Adj EPS
US$0.34
−17% vs our model · C$0.47
Consensus
US$0.36
actual missed consensus · C$0.49
All monetary figures in USD (Q1 2026: ×0.726 USD/CAD · Q1 2025 ref: ×0.702). CCJ reports natively in C$ — see press-release tables above for source figures.
Line Item Our Bear Our Base Our Bull ✓ ACTUAL vs Base vs Consensus Verdict
Uranium Sales 6.0M lbs7.0M lbs8.0M lbs 7.8M lbs +11.4%— ✓ Hit — above base, near bull
Realized Price (US$/lb) US$66.21US$62.55US$66.21 US$66.21 −0.5%— ✓ Close — model used C$91.71 (~US$66.54); actual US$66.21, within US$0.33
Uranium Revenue US$399MUS$466MUS$533M US$517M +10.9%— ✓ Hit — volume beat lifted revenue
Fuel Services Rev. US$70MUS$70MUS$70M US$97M +39.6%— ✗ Miss — conversion volumes & pricing beat
Total Revenue US$469MUS$536MUS$602M US$613M +14.5%— ✓ Beat — above bull scenario
WW Adj. EBITDA (CCJ share) US$36MUS$41MUS$44M US$89M +117.9%— ✗ Miss — outage season far busier than assumed
Adj. EBITDA US$266MUS$307MUS$350M US$369M +20.3%— ✗ Miss — WW drove EBITDA above bull case
Net Earnings (IFRS) ——— US$95M —— △ Note — WW D&A suppressed IFRS earnings
Adj. Net Earnings US$129MUS$160MUS$193M US$147M −8.1%— ~ Close — below base, above bear
Adj EPS (diluted) US$0.33 US$0.41 US$0.49 US$0.34 −16.1% −US$0.02 ✗ Overshot — WW equity-method D&A compressed adj EPS
IFRS EPS (diluted) not modeled separately US$0.22 — — — Ref — IFRS net earnings US$95M
Production (U segment) —3.6M lbs— 6.2M lbs +72.2%— ✓ Beat — McArthur/Cigar ahead of Q1 seasonal pace
Unit Cost (US$/lb produced) —US$28.82/lb— US$24.72/lb −14.2%— ✓ Beat — produced costs well below model
FY Guidance —Maintained— Maintained —— ✓ Hit — 29–32M lbs FY confirmed

✓ What the model got right

  • Realized price: US$66.21/lb actual vs ~US$66.54 modeled (C$91.71/lb from CCJ price sensitivity table at US$85.60 spot, converted at ~0.726 USD/CAD) — within US$0.33 (0.5%). Contract pricing behaved as expected.
  • Volume range: 7.8M lbs landed above base (7.0) and near bull (8.0) — spread correctly sized.
  • Guidance hold: Called "maintained" — correct. 29–32M lbs FY confirmed; Westinghouse US$404M / C$557M guide unchanged.
  • Adj. net earnings direction: US$147M actual landed between bear (US$129M) and base (US$160M) — close.
  • Production costs: Actual US$24.72/lb total production cost was better than modeled (US$28.82/lb) — Q1 mine performance strong.

✗ Where the model was off

  • Adj EPS overshot: US$0.41 model vs US$0.34 actual (−17%). WW net loss of −US$33M (due to acquisition D&A) suppresses EPS even when WW adj EBITDA is strong. Must model WW below-EBITDA items separately.
  • Westinghouse EBITDA: US$41M modeled vs US$89M actual (+118%). Q1 outage calendar was far busier than seasonal assumption. Primary model improvement for Q2.
  • Fuel Services: US$70M modeled vs US$97M actual (+40%). Conversion volumes and pricing both beat — stronger-than-expected UF6 conversion demand.
  • Production Q1 pace: 6.2M lbs actual vs 3.6M modeled (+72%). McArthur River/Cigar Lake ran well ahead. Watch whether Q1 front-loading pulls from H2 or is a higher run-rate.
Methodology note: Pre-earnings model published April 25, 2026 (10 days before CCJ reported May 5, 2026). Estimates derived from: CCJ 2025 Annual Report price sensitivity table, EIA-923 seasonal delivery patterns, Westinghouse FY guidance prorated by outage season, FERC Form 1 fuel services benchmarks, 2025 MD&A unit cost guidance. Consensus from MarketBeat (5 analysts). Actuals from CCJ Q1 2026 News Release, May 5, 2026.

Investment Thesis & Key Dynamics

🎯 Post-Q1 2026 Bull Case

  • Realized price structure is a floor near-term: LT contracts provide ~US$66–69/lb even if spot softens. Cameco locks margin regardless of spot moves below US$85.
  • Westinghouse EBITDA trajectory positive: Q1 ~US$89M (CCJ share) vs ~US$67M prior year (+33%). Full-year guide ~US$404M (100%) implies ~US$202M CCJ share. Outage season Q2/Q3 is the busiest — watch for upside.
  • Volume leverage dominates: Each +1M lb delivered at US$66.21 adds ~US$40M uranium gross profit. Volume upside from utility front-loading is the key upside risk.
  • Contracting book resilient: 28M lbs/yr average delivery commitments over next 5 years; above-average 2026–2028.

⚠️ Key Risks / Bear Case

  • Spot stagnation delays re-contracting: If spot stays US$85–90, utilities can defer new long-term signings. Committed book rolls off 2029–2030 without replacement.
  • WW EPS drag structural: Acquisition-related D&A continues to suppress IFRS EPS even as EBITDA grows. Investors focused on EPS may undervalue the business.
  • Key Lake maintenance shutdown Q3: Disclosed at year-start. Tie-in of new infrastructure means potentially lower H2 production — may reverse the Q1 production beat.
  • Cash from operations negative (−US$16M): Working capital build in Q1. Watch for normalization in Q2–Q4 as deliveries accelerate.
  • Kazakhstan JV Inkai: 4.2M lbs 2026 purchase allocation — geopolitical and logistics risk on timing of deliveries.

Q1 2026E P&L — Bear / Base / Bull vs Q1 2025 Actual (Pre-Earnings Model)

Line Item Q1 2025 Actual Bear (6.0M lbs) Base (7.0M lbs) Bull (8.0M lbs) Q1 2026 Actual
Uranium Sales6.9M lbs6.0M lbs7.0M lbs8.0M lbs7.8M lbs
Realized Price (US$/lb)US$62.55/lbUS$66.21/lbUS$66.21/lbUS$66.21/lbUS$66.21/lb
Uranium RevenueUS$434MUS$399MUS$466MUS$533MUS$517M
Fuel Services Rev.US$95MUS$70MUS$70MUS$70MUS$97M
Total RevenueUS$554MUS$469MUS$536MUS$602MUS$613M
WW Adj. EBITDA (CCJ share)US$65MUS$36MUS$41MUS$44MUS$89M
Adj. EBITDAUS$248MUS$266MUS$307MUS$350MUS$369M
Adj. EBITDA YoY—+3.7%+19.8%+36.5%+44.2%
Adj. Net EarningsUS$49MUS$129MUS$160MUS$193MUS$147M
IFRS Net EarningsUS$49M———US$95M
Adj EPS (diluted)US$0.11US$0.33US$0.41US$0.49US$0.34
IFRS EPS (diluted)US$0.11not modeledUS$0.22
Adj EPS vs Consensus US$0.36—−8.2%+14.3%+38.8%−4.1%
All figures in USD. Q1 2026 converted at avg ~0.726 USD/CAD; Q1 2025 at ~0.702 USD/CAD. CCJ reports natively in C$ — press-release tables above show source figures. WW = Westinghouse Electric (Cameco 49% ownership). Adj EPS uses adjusted net earnings ÷ 431M diluted shares. IFRS EPS uses net earnings attributable to equity holders ÷ diluted shares. Note: WW EBITDA of US$89M (C$122M) flows to consolidated adj EBITDA but WW net loss of −US$33M (C$46M) suppresses IFRS and adj EPS — this mechanic was undermodeled.

Full Year 2026 Scenario Projections (Post-Q1 Update)

Scenario Spot (US$/lb) Realized (US$/lb) Revenue (US$M) Adj EBITDA (US$M) Margin Net Earnings (US$M) Adj EPS (US$)
Bear (29M lbs)US$85.60~US$66.54US$2,211MUS$1,256M56.9%US$664MUS$1.54
Base (30.5M lbs)US$85.60~US$66.54US$2,311MUS$1,326M57.4%US$718MUS$1.67
Bull (32M lbs)US$85.60~US$66.54US$2,410MUS$1,395M57.9%US$770MUS$1.79
Full-year projections in USD (÷ 0.726). WW mid-guidance US$404M (100% basis; C$557M) used for WW EBITDA. FCF after capex (US$353M est.) and interest. Adj EPS based on ~431M diluted shares. Note: spot US$85.60 reflects Q1 2026 pricing basis; current spot ~US$55/lb may affect future realized prices.

Q1 2026 Spot Price Sensitivity (7.8M lbs actual delivered)

Spot US$/lb Realized (C$/lb) Revenue (US$M) EBITDA (US$M) Adj EPS (US$) vs Cons US$0.36
US$60.00C$80.78US$457MUS$276MUS$0.26−26.5%
US$65.00C$83.22US$471MUS$287MUS$0.28−20.4%
US$70.00C$85.65US$485MUS$300MUS$0.30−14.3%
US$75.00C$88.09US$499MUS$312MUS$0.32−10.2%
US$80.00C$90.53US$512MUS$324MUS$0.33−6.1%
US$85.60 ◀ Q1 actual spotC$91.26US$517MUS$369MUS$0.34−4.1%
US$90.00C$92.62US$524MUS$385MUS$0.360.0%
US$95.00C$93.66US$530MUS$393MUS$0.37+4.1%
US$100.00C$94.71US$537MUS$403MUS$0.38+8.2%
Sensitivity uses Q1 actual 7.8M lbs delivered. Revenue, EBITDA, and EPS converted to USD at 0.726 (Q1 avg). Realized C$/lb column retained as CCJ's official pricing-formula output. WW contribution held at actual US$89M / C$122M (CCJ share). Adj EPS based on 431M diluted shares and ~26% effective tax rate. Realized price from CCJ official FX sensitivity model. Note: current spot ~US$55/lb vs Q1 actual US$85.60 — future quarters will track lower realized prices.