🤖 AI & Hyperscaler Nuclear Demand Tracker
Corporate PPA pipeline · MW under contract · Implied U₃O₈ demand · Demand invisible to EIA forecasts
Updated May 2026
Sources: SEC filings · company IR · FERC · DOE
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835 MW
Online Now (TMI-1, Sep 2024)
~2.3 GWe
Contracted Pipeline (signed)
3–5 GWe
In Development / RFP
~2.4M lbs
Implied U₃O₈/yr (full buildout)
~48M lbs
Microsoft 20-yr Lifetime Commitment
$0
In EIA / WNA Demand Forecasts
Tech companies are the new uranium demand variable — and nobody is tracking it yet. Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle have collectively announced or contracted for 3–6 GWe of nuclear capacity to power AI data centers. At 90% capacity factor and 0.050 lbs U₃O₈/MWh (standard US fleet conversion), this pipeline implies 1.2–2.4M lbs/yr of incremental uranium demand at full buildout — equivalent to 3–6% of total US annual consumption added on top of all existing forecasts. The critical point: none of this appears in EIA-923, EIA-858, WNA demand projections, or UxC/TradeTech supply/demand models. These models are built on historical utility fleet data. Tech company PPAs create binding uranium procurement obligations on their counterparties (Constellation, Energy Northwest, Kairos) — demand that will hit the spot and term market 2–4 years before the reactors come online as operators pre-buy fuel.
Announced Corporate Nuclear Deals — All Confirmed Agreements
Company Partner / Reactor Type MW Status Target U₃O₈/yr (est) Notes
Constellation / TMI-1
Crane Clean Energy Center, PA		 Restart PPA 835 🟢 Operating Sep 2024 ✓ ~330K lbs 20-year PPA signed Sep 2023. Restart of TMI Unit 1 (shut 2019). First tech-nuclear PPA at this scale. Constellation holds the fuel obligation.
Energy Northwest / X-Energy
Washington State, 12 × Xe-100 SMR		 SMR New Build 960 🔵 Signed 2031–2035 ~374K lbs Oct 2023. 12 modular Xe-100 units (80 MWe each). HALEU fuel; X-Energy has DOE ARDP funding. ENW is the owner/operator; AWS is power offtaker.
Kairos Power
Hermes FHR SMR, TN + TX sites		 SMR New Build 500 🔵 Signed 2030–2035 ~195K lbs Oct 2023. Multiple reactor units. Fluoride salt-cooled, TRISO fuel. Kairos received NRC construction permit for Hermes demo reactor (Oak Ridge, TN) Dec 2023 — fastest NRC CP in history.
Dominion / North Anna
Virginia (SMR campus)		 SMR New Build ~300 🟡 Development 2032+ ~117K lbs LOI signed late 2023. Dominion exploring SMR co-location at North Anna site (existing 2-unit PWR plant). Technology and final MW TBD; permitting stage.
Talen Energy / Susquehanna
Cumulus Data campus, PA		 Campus Co-location ~480 🟡 Development 2024–2026 ~187K lbs Amazon acquired Cumulus Data (adjacent data center campus) from Talen for $650M. Direct grid interconnection to Susquehanna BWR. FERC rejected initial co-location tariff; revised agreement under review.
TBD — RFP issued Jan 2024
Multiple potential partners		 RFP / New Nuclear 1,000–4,000 🟣 RFP Active 2030+ 390K–1.6M lbs Meta sought 1–4 GWe of new nuclear capacity in Jan 2024 RFP. No contract announced as of May 2026. Likely candidate: Constellation (largest US nuclear operator) or SMR developer. NuScale also pursuing. Use 2 GWe as working estimate.
TBD — 3-SMR campus
Larry Ellison announced Sep 2024		 SMR New Build ~1,000 🟣 Planning 2030+ ~390K lbs Oracle designing data center campus to run on 3 SMRs totaling ~1 GWe. No operator or technology partner announced. Ellison cited specific nuclear plans in Oracle earnings call Sep 2024.
Constellation / nuclear fleet
Multiple US sites		 Nuclear PPA ~90 🟢 Active 2025+ ~35K lbs Equinix (data center REIT) contracted nuclear power from Constellation fleet. Smaller scale; sets template for other data center operators procuring nuclear-sourced power.
Total (confirmed signed deals) ~2,385 MW ~934K lbs/yr Excludes Meta RFP and Oracle (no contract). Excludes Amazon/Talen (contested).
Total (full pipeline incl. development) ~6,165 MW ~2.4M lbs/yr Mid-case Meta (2 GWe), Oracle (1 GWe), Amazon/Talen included. High case (Meta 4 GWe): ~3.6M lbs/yr.
U₃O₈ demand estimated at 0.050 lbs/MWh × 90% capacity factor × nameplate MW. TRISO-fueled SMRs (X-Energy Xe-100, Kairos Hermes) use HALEU (15–19.75% enriched); raw U₃O₈ feedstock requirement per MWe is similar to LWR on a natural uranium equivalent basis. Actual consumption varies by reactor design and enrichment level. Not investment advice.
Capacity Coming Online by Year (MW, Confirmed + Pipeline)
Tech Sector Nuclear Capacity Ramp (MW) · 2024–2036
0 1,500 3,000 4,500 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Operating / confirmed LWR Signed SMR deals Pipeline (Meta / Oracle)
The EIA Blind Spot — Why This Demand Doesn’t Exist in Any Forecast
What the models see vs reality
EIA-923 demand model basis Historical fleet only
Tech company demand in EIA-858 $0 / not captured
WNA demand projections include tech PPAs No — utility data only
UxC/TradeTech S/D models include tech Partially — being added
2035 confirmed pipeline U₃O₈ ~2.4M lbs/yr incremental
As % of US annual fleet demand +6% on top of current
Microsoft 20-yr TMI lifetime demand ~6.6M lbs U₃O₈
Why fuel procurement is imminent (not 2030)
TMI restart uranium contracts Already signed (2023)
ENW / X-Energy fuel lead time 5–7 yrs (HALEU pipeline)
Kairos fuel lead time 4–6 yrs (TRISO supply)
Operators must begin contracting 2025–2027 for 2031 ops
HALEU currently available from Centrus · DOE · Urenco
Market impact timing Now — not when reactors start
The fuel procurement clock is already running. Reactors slated to come online in 2031 need fuel contracts signed by 2026–2027 to allow for uranium mining, conversion, enrichment, and fabrication lead times. For HALEU-fueled SMRs (X-Energy Xe-100, Kairos), the supply chain is even more constrained — Centrus Energy is the only licensed HALEU producer in the US, with initial capacity of ~900 kg/yr (a fraction of what 12 Xe-100 units will require). Energy Northwest and Kairos are not utility procurement desks — they have no existing uranium contract infrastructure. They will be competing against established utilities on an already-tight term market. This is new procurement pressure arriving into the market now.
Investment Framework — Who Benefits
Beneficiary Mechanism Exposure Level Key Risk
Constellation Energy (CEG) Direct Microsoft PPA operator; potential Meta/Oracle counterparty; owns largest US nuclear fleet. Every tech PPA negotiation goes through CEG first. ⬤⬤⬤ HIGH Execution / regulatory; fleet license extensions
Cameco (CCJ) Uranium supplier to Constellation and other US operators. Higher tech demand → higher contracted volumes → repricing of CCJ's Tier 2 contracts at better terms. Indirect but real. ⬤⬤ MED–HIGH SMR timeline slippage delays demand
Energy Fuels (UUUU) US domestic producer; UFPA domestic preference; White Mesa Mill is the only operating conventional uranium mill in the US. DOE reserve purchases provide floor. Tech demand tightens the market UUUU sells into. ⬤⬤ MED–HIGH Price volatility; White Mesa batch risk
Centrus Energy (LEU) Only licensed US HALEU producer. X-Energy SMRs require HALEU. If Amazon ENW project proceeds, Centrus is in a near-monopoly position on US HALEU supply. Small-cap; asymmetric. ⬤⬤⬤ VERY HIGH SMR cancellation risk; capacity scale-up
X-Energy / Kairos (private) Direct tech partners. Not publicly traded, but both have raised significant capital. Watch for IPO catalysts. Kairos Hermes construction permit (Dec 2023) is a major derisking milestone. Private — no listed equity Construction cost; tech regulatory risk
Uranium spot / SPUT (U.UN) New term market pressure from SMR operators with no existing contracts = new spot/term buying that doesn't go through utility procurement desks. Hits the same thin spot market (~29M lbs float). ⬤⬤ MEDIUM SPUT NAV discount reduces buying
The compounding effect: Tech nuclear demand doesn't just add incremental lbs/yr — it changes the contracting dynamic. When Microsoft, Amazon, and Google signed in Oct 2023, it validated nuclear as a viable corporate procurement strategy. Every data center operator that follows doesn't just add demand — they add a new class of buyer with no existing uranium contracts, no procurement infrastructure, and a 5-7 year fuel lead time cliff. The question for uranium investors is not whether this demand is real. It's whether the market has priced in the contracting pressure that begins hitting the term market in 2026–2027, two to three years before a single new SMR produces power.
Sources & Methodology
Deal data: Company IR, SEC filings, press releases. Microsoft/Constellation PPA: Sep 2023 announcement, restart Sep 2024. Amazon/ENW/X-Energy: Oct 2023 announcement. Google/Kairos: Oct 2023 announcement. Meta RFP: Jan 2024. Amazon/Talen: FERC docket EL24-20. Oracle: Sep 2024 earnings call. U₃O₈ demand: 0.050 lbs/MWh × 90% CF × nameplate MW (US fleet average, consistent with EIA-923 method). HALEU SMR fuel estimates use same conversion for comparability; actual varies by design. Not investment advice. Capacity figures reflect nameplate; actual output subject to capacity factor, construction timeline, regulatory approvals.
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uranium-edge · AI & Hyperscaler Nuclear Demand Tracker · Updated May 2026
Sources: Company IR · SEC filings · FERC · DOE · NRC · Not investment advice
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